They evaluated the dispute in three ways. And in all three there was a particular triple tie. This is a new survey by the consulting firm Opina Argentina, which measured for the 2023 elections, with the first stop in the presidential PASO on August 13. Where was there parity? In an evaluation by space and in two hypotheses of competence for the primaries. The forces involved are those that have been taking over the media scene: the Frente de Todos, Juntos por el Cambio and the libertarians of Javier Milei.
Opina Argentina is a firm that has been working for years for both sides of the rift. He measured among others for Juan Manzur, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Axel Kicillof, to cite three cases. Between May 9 and 20, it conducted a face-to-face survey of 1,402 cases throughout the country, with +/- 2.6% margin of error.
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To start, it presents the "main trends", which work as a summary. They say:
- "Our national survey in May confirms the scenario of thirds registered in the last quarter: measured as political spaces, the Frente de Todos, Juntos and La Libertad Avanza are in a technical tie."
- "In terms of individual candidacies, Milei is the most voted presidential candidate in the PASO. In the internal of Juntos, Larreta takes a slight advantage to Patricia Bullrich – within the margin of error – and Massa prevails by a narrow difference against Scioli in the Frente de Todos. "
- "As for the images, as has been happening in recent months, all the leaders analyzed present a negative image differential. This accounts for the level of social unrest about politics."
- "In this context, Milei is the leader with the best image (44% positive and 45% negative). Massa, with +38%, is the best-positioned official, closely followed by Scioli. And Facundo Manes, among the pre-candidates for president, is the leader with the greatest ignorance (52%)."
- "Of the electoral scenarios, Milei is the leader with the highest electoral ceiling (possible vote plus safe vote). However, its potential vote, which is 42%, registers a retraction of two points compared to last month."
Rodríguez Larreta (33%) has a greater potential than Bullrich (28%). However, the former security minister has a safe vote slightly higher than that of the head of the Buenos Aires government."
- "Axel Kicillof is the leader with the lowest electoral ceiling: 67% say they 'would never vote for him'".
Tie 1: intention to vote by space
The first electoral question asked by the consultant directed by Facundo Nejamkis, a former official of Cristina Kirchner's government, is: "If the elections were tomorrow, what political space would you vote for?"
In a technical tie and already without polarization, leads the "Frente de Todos of Cristina and Alberto Fernández" with 26%, followed by "Together for Change of Bullrich, Macri and Larreta" and "La Libertad Avanza of Javier Milei", both with 24%.
They complete, further away, the "Peronism no K of Schiaretti and Urtubey" with 5% and the Left Front with 4%. They close 11% undecided, 4% white and 2% other.
A second table shows the same measurement, in February and April. And the changes were minor. In the first case, it also led the FdT with 27%, followed by JxC with 25% and LLA with 22%. In the second, they got 26%, 22% and 24% respectively.
Tie 2: PASO scenario with 8 candidates
The second parity appears when Opina Argentina evaluates the first PASO scenario. There, in the sum, Together for Change reaches 27% and the Frente de Todos y La Libertad Avanza at 26%.
As for JxC, Larreta leads with 13%, followed by Bullrich with 11% and complete Manes with 3%. Fact: this same consultant had surprised with a survey in which the head of government almost doubled the former minister. Today it places them in a technical tie.
As for the ruling party, Massa leads Scioli 15% to 11% and Milei adds only 26 points of his strength. Schiaretti and Bregman come in at 4%, plus 8% undecided, 3% white and 2% others.
Tie 3: PASO scenario with 7 candidates
In the second hypothesis for the primaries, Manes leaves the internal JxC, which remains at 27%, by 15% of Larreta and 12% of Bullrich.
The FdT is the same at 27%, because Massa rises to 16% and Scioli remains at 11%; and Milei repeats its 26%. Of the rest, the only change is that Bregman drops one point and remains at 3%.