With the national forecast very complicated, a sector of the Frente de Todos, with Kirchnerism at the head, decided to refocus energies to defend the central bastion, the province of Buenos Aires. But a new electoral survey to which Clarín accessed ignites a strong alert. Or rather two, because it places the ruling party in second place for the PASO for presidentand governor.
The study is from Circuitos, a consulting firm specialized in the Buenos Aires district and whose studies usually circulate in official and leftist circles. Between May 26 and 27, the firm led by analyst Pablo Romá made a provincial telephone survey of 1,624 cases, with +/- 3.5% margin of error.
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Argentina chooses 2023
Before entering the electoral field, the study addresses another critical topic for the Government. The economy. And there the forecasts are not good either. More than half of the Buenos Aires residents consulted believe that the situation will "get worse" or "get much worse" in the coming months.
Then they are asked about their mood, and there two feelings predominate: "Uncertainty" (30.9%) and "pessimism" (29.8%). "Optimism" is contrasted with 22.1%.
For president, two negative scenarios
As for the 2023 elections chapter, Circuits first evaluates the national fight, facing the presidential one. And it is striking that, in the sum of candidates, the Frente de Todos appears second, always remembering that it is the province of Buenos Aires.
To have a parameter, in the general presidential of 2019, in Buenos Aires territory the Fernández took 2 million votes and 22 percentage points (52% to 30%, round number) to Macri-Pichetto. And with a similar ease, Axel Kicillof displaced María Eugenia Vidal from the governorship. The scenario today is completely different.
Then comes the first hypothesis of the presidential PASO of August 13, where Together for Change prevails with 38.1%, thanks to 23.8% of Patricia Bullrich and 14.3% of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. The Frente de Todos adds only 30.7%, by 22.1% of Sergio Massa and 8.6% of Daniel Scioli.
Javier Milei (12.3%), Myriam Bregman 2.1% and Gabriel Solano 1.4% (total Left Front 3.5%), Guillermo Moreno (PJ not K) 4.9% and None 10.5% complete further away.
In the second proposal, Wado de Pedro enters for Massa and the numbers of the ruling party fall a little more. The ruling party has 29 points, 18.1% for the interior minister and 10.9% for Scioli. Together for Change continues to rise, in this case with 37.2%, by 24.1% of Bullrich and 13.1% of Larreta.
Then close Milei 14.2%, Bregman 2.3% and Solano 1.8% (total Left Front 4.1%), Moreno 5.1% and None 10.4%.
For space and for governor, two more defeats
Circuitos presents two more measurements of voting intention. One for space and another for PASO for governor. In both, the ruling party is once again relegated.
In the bid by force, with these numbers:
- Together for Change 29.7%.
- Frente de Todos 24.9%.
- Freedom advances 12.7%.
- Peronism no K 6.9%.
- Left Front 3.9%.
- Another 4.4%.
- None 17.5%.
The picture for governor is also worrisome for the government. Because although Kicillof remains the most voted, in the sum by force the Frente de Todos is second. With these figures:
- Together for Change 45%: Diego Santilli 21.9% + Néstor Grindetti 14.3% + Facundo Manes 8.8%.
- Frente de Todos 32%: Axel Kicillof 29.4% + Martín Insaurralde 2.6%.
- Néstor Pitrola (FIT) 4.9%.
- Fernando Burlando 1.4%.
- Another 3.9%.
- None 12.8%.
See also
