By Julia Ainsley and Didi Martinez - NBC News
The number of immigrants illegally crossing the U.S. southwest border is at its lowest point since the start of the Biden Administration, with just over 3,000 immigrants apprehended by the Border Patrol each day. The number has plummeted from more than 10,000 daily just three weeks ago, despite widespread predictions of an increase following the end of Title 42 restrictions on May 11.
And it's also possible that there will be fewer migrants waiting across the border to cross. Shortly before Title 42 was lifted, Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz estimated that as many as 65,000 migrants were living in shelters and tent cities in Mexico, ready to enter the U.S.
[Border Patrol admits nurse denied "three or four requests" for ambulance for girl who died in custody]
Although figures for tent cities were not available, the United Nations' International Organization for Migration noted that the population of more than 130 shelters in northern Mexico had fallen from more than 25,000 people on May 19 to just over 20,000 on Monday.
What happened?
More migrants use asylum app: Shelter operators in Tijuana say migrants in their shelters are increasingly turning to CBP One, the mobile app for booking appointments at U.S. ports of entry to apply for asylum.
While the app remains flawed and difficult to use, recent improvements have allowed more than 1,000 migrants a day to use it and have 23 hours to book appointments and another 23 hours to accept them, according to a new study from the Strauss Center at the University of Texas at Austin. which conducted a recent survey on asylum procedures at the U.S.-Mexico border.
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Previously, migrants were quickly cut out of the system when it reached daily capacity, leading to frustration and, in one case, an avalanche at the port of entry in El Paso, Texas. Now, with more migrants applying for asylum legally, fewer are attempting to cross illegally.
[Biden called separations of migrant families under Trump "criminal." Now fight against those who seek justice.]
Consequences: Customs and Border Protection officials also attribute the slowdown in illegal border crossings to the "consequences." Under Title 42, migrants could repeatedly attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border without suffering consequences if turned away.
Following the end of restrictions, migrants caught entering the U.S. illegally are charged with a felony if they are deported and caught trying to re-enter the U.S. within five years, a reimposition of an old regulation called Title 8. A Customs and Border Protection (CBP) official believes that the news of increased penalties and deportations - of the "consequences" - has reached the ears of immigrants considering crossing.
However, other factors that may be keeping the numbers low are more temporary, according to U.S. and foreign officials who watch global migration patterns.
The weather: A Colombian official said that in recent weeks there have been fewer migrants crossing from Colombia into Panama through the dangerous Darien jungle due to the rainy season, which has made the journey even muddier, slippery and treacherous. The Colombian official said that, as the weather improves, he expects the number of migrants, particularly those from Venezuela, to increase.
Migrants wait in line next to the border fence under the watch of the Texas National Guard to enter El Paso, Wednesday, May 10, 2023.Andres Leighton/AP
New Restrictions on Asylum: A Department of Homeland Security official said the agency also attributes the decline to the policy known as asylum ineligibility put in place following the completion of Title 42.
Under the new policy, immigrants who do not first apply for asylum in the countries they pass through on their way to the United States will not be able to apply for asylum at the U.S. border unless they are denied by a country through which they have passed or prove they meet a number of special criteria, such as being potential victims of torture if deported.
[I am F2B from El Salvador, can I enter the family reunification process?]
But the American Civil Liberties Union has asked a federal judge in the Northern District of California to block the asylum denial policy. The first hearing is scheduled for 19 July. The DHS official said that if the judge blocks the policy and prevents the Biden administration from denying asylum to those migrants, the administration could soon see more migrants trying to cross illegally to claim asylum instead of using the CBP One app.
Meanwhile, WhatsApp group chats between migrants hoping to make their way to the United States remain active with advice, announcements, and firsthand accounts of what to expect in a post-Title 42 environment.
"Could someone send me a VPN (Virtual Private Network) that works to request it from my country?" asked one person in a CBP One WhatsApp group, providing a screenshot of an error message from the app saying they must be in Mexico to make an appointment.
In another group chat, the smugglers also continue to offer their services through videos and images that attest to their "success" in getting migrants to cross and surround the Darién jungle using boats.
"I don't lie to my people. Zero danger. Nothing to cross the jungle. The safest route. We have the best prices," said one user, sharing a video of a guide named Manuelito in which a group of migrants are seen cheering up and putting on life jackets as they board the boats.
