The attack near Mount Sagi, during which three IDF soldiers fell, is painful testimony to the chaos in northern Sinai. ISIS cells, rogue Bedouin tribes and drug and weapons smuggling are just the apprentices of a sandstorm that has been raging for a long time on the peninsula. If it turns out that the Egyptian policeman carried out a planned and initiated operation, there will be a grave concern that a calculated attempt to sabotage the relationship between the IDF and the Egyptian security forces was also carried out here.
IDF Spokesperson
Although this sensitive relationship is familiar to us from Egyptian mediation in the rounds of fighting against the terrorist organizations in Gaza, it is one of the main tools used by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in his war in Sinai. It is not for nothing that senior Egyptian investigator Dalia Ziada noted that the perpetrator of this crime tried to "damage Israeli-Egyptian relations, which have improved dramatically in recent years."
Egyptian President el-Sisi, photo: Reuters
This alliance has its roots in the Begin-Sadat peace agreement and in the early 2000s. After some 20 years of government neglect and population growth, radical Islamic elements have infiltrated Sinai, exploiting the hostility towards the regime among the younger generation of Bedouins. The governmental upheaval of the Arab Spring became a golden opportunity for al-Qaeda and other organizations, and in those years they experienced an unprecedented boom, which was reflected in the terrorist attacks in the south of August 2011. Subsequently, some of the cells pledged allegiance to ISIS.
Sinai beaches, photo: Lior Mizrahi (archive)
After the Muslim Brotherhood was ousted from power in Cairo in 2013, Egyptian security forces turned to dealing with this quicksand. They increased coordination with Israel, and strengthened relations with the veteran leadership of the Bedouin tribes. At the same time, they launched an impressive military operation to eradicate the smuggling tunnels along the border with the Gaza Strip – the logistical and human home front of the terrorist cells in Sinai. An instructive example of this was the death of the nephew of the Hamas leader in Gaza about a year ago. The Egyptian army then eliminated Yahya Sinwar's nephew, who over time became an ISIS operative. Hamas was too moderate for him.
As of now, it seems that the Egyptian army's announcement that he was a security guard who chased drug dealers and got into an exchange of fire with the IDF was intended to "mitigate" the severity of the security incident. In other words, to distance the perpetrator from Egypt's army and police, and present him as a junior security guard who became embroiled in a tragic incident. But unfortunately, one wording or another of a spokesperson's statement will not succeed in embellishing the disturbing reality. Despite Cairo's tremendous efforts, which has also seen successes over the years, there is still a long way to go to gain control of northern Sinai.
In fact, Egypt's precarious economic situation, battered by the war in Ukraine, could be an engine for further smuggling and exacerbation of tensions. As the Egyptian pound crashes, more and more people are pushed into the cycle of crime and drug smuggling. Moreover, terrorist organizations tend to grow stronger in times of economic depression and governmental instability. Moreover, Egypt's new foreign policy, which is taking shape against the backdrop of the economic crisis, does not bode well.
In times of trouble, Sisi does not shy away from rapprochement with his bitter rivals: Erdogan's Turkey, with whom it was agreed to upgrade diplomatic relations last week, but the Egyptian Rais is also appealing to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Cairo recently eased permits for Iranian tourists, and in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave his blessing for warming relations in a meeting with the mediator, the Omani sultan. For a long time, Egypt has enjoyed the bustling Israeli tourism on the beaches of southern Sinai. But with relief for Iranian tourists, a new threat appears to be looming on the horizon. And this time – from a completely different direction.
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