The weather experts are already pretty much in agreement on the summer forecast for July and August. The trend in 2022 will continue. Will the weather be similarly extreme?
Munich – Heat records in northern Germany and historic drought in the west. Dried-up rivers and record forest fires, as well as regional heavy rainfall and flooding. All of this was the summer of 2022. Can we expect the same extremes this year? An outlook on the summer months of 2023.
Weather forecast for summer 2023: meteorologist fears tropical conditions
Summer seems to have just begun. The last days of May attracted people outside all over Germany with lots of sunshine and temperatures of up to 27 degrees. Perfect barbecue and bathing weather. But this is already bringing with it the first drought and forest fire warnings – so far mainly in northeastern Germany. Although it was a rainy spring, the deep layers of the soil are still affected by the last droughts. Initial forecasts now show that this is likely to continue in 2023 in the summer months of July and August. There are already droughts and forest fires in other European countries - in Spain this year the first fire even occurred in March.
For both July and August, weather experts and models seem to be quite unanimous. For example, the American and European models predict an average temperature deviation above the climate average since 1991 of one to two degrees for both months. Experts assume that extreme heat will become more frequent and violent in the future due to climate change.
Weather experts predict warm and dry summer in 2023 – with "tropical" storms?
"If that happens, then July would be one of the warmest since weather records began," said weather expert Dominik Jung at wetter.net. Especially in the south, according to the trends, heat must be expected, adds meteorologist Corinna Borau at wetter.com. Warm, but also dry? While Borau predicts a July that will not be too wet, Jung also sees phases that are "wetter than normal," at least in part. Rain and warm: "It almost had tropical features," says Jung. "There could be a lot going on in terms of storms, in terms of thunderstorms," he says.
According to the forecasts, August will not be quite as hot afterwards. Nevertheless, the month is also likely to be up to two degrees above the average, according to the weather experts. In some regions it can get too dry, in others it can rain. Borau describes it as "changeable phases". For more accurate forecasts, the eighth month is still too far away.
Two women protect from the sun with an umbrella. © Rolf Vennenbernd/dpa
All in all, the summer of 2023 seems to be too warm and average to slightly too dry in terms of precipitation, meteorologist Johannes Graf summarizes at wetter.net. Overall, however, the starting position is better than in the previous year, according to Borau. In 2022, April had already been far too dry. "If a dry and hot summer follows, then the situation will probably not be quite as extreme as last year," the meteorologist concludes. Nevertheless, the temperature trend is pointing upwards. A recent study dared to make a drastic weather forecast: According to experts, many people have to leave their homes. (chd)