June 19 is a key day for the PASO of the Frente de Todos, in which today Eduardo "Wado" de Pedro and Daniel Scioli appear temporarily. That day is the deadline for political groups to inform the electoral justice of the integration and the regulations that this force will comply with for the primaries.
In the most orthodox official sector, the one that launched the presidential candidacy of Daniel Scioli and Victoria Tolosa Paz to the governorship of Buenos Aires, there is concern that some last-minute surprise will not appear. Already in informal conversations many differences appear. In Sciolism they point to Sergio Massa's Frente Renovador. Although the one who remained as representative of the national PJ, the main party of the FdT, is the Formoseño Gildo Insfrán clearly aligned with Christianity.
The regulation is essential to make the competition transparent but also the tool that the massismo and La Cámpora can use to take the largest number of candidates. Doubts arise, for example, around the floor. Last week, Christian leaders threatened to raise the floor to 40% so that the Scioli-Tolosa Paz duo has less chance, they whitewashed. When something reasonable would be 15%.
Sergio Massa and Eduardo "Wado" De Pedro at the inauguration of the Mercedes train to Tomás Jofré.
Another factor that can generate controversy is what system will be adopted to form the final list of candidates. The usual is the D'Hont system, which intersperses the candidates in a list according to the percentages obtained by each payroll. But it could also be decided, arbitrarily, to apply a different system that benefits the majority.
The issue acquires relevance because now the PASO in Kirchnerism sound inevitable. The strategy seems to have taken a turn. At the beginning, in addition to Massa, the proposal of a single candidate had been replicated by Cristina Kirchner with the idea of the useful vote, that is, that there is only one such candidate on the night of the PASO the pre-candidates of the FdT were not relegated with respect to those of Together for Change and Javier Milei. Now the idea prevails that the only candidates leave a trail of wounded Peronist leaders, or out of the game, who can go to play with other political spaces or directly not campaign for Kirchnerism. And the ruling party cannot give that advantage.
Scioli's expectations could grow if the opponent is Wado. "In some municipalities, Scioli measures more than Wado and the mayors take that into account," they say in the environment of the ambassador in Brazil.
That Cristina has sent the interior minister to walk the country does not yet archive the expectation that the presidential candidate will be Massa or Axel Kicillof. It all depends on how much level of ignorance De Pedro discounts and wins in voting intention. For Kirchnerism to have a chance of retaining the province of Buenos Aires, it needs a presidential candidate who measures today more than Kicillof for his reelection.
On the other side of the sidewalk, the motto seems to be "there will always be some reason to differentiate ourselves". This time the discussion revolves around the governor of Córdoba and presidential pre-candidate for a non-K Peronist space, Juan Schiaretti, who days ago said that for "what Argentina needs to leave behind so many years of decadence and frustration is to have a common government program, to make a new political alliance on the part of those who agree and then a government of national unity."
This Monday there will be no definition at the meeting of the National Board of JxC, which brings together the presidents of the parties. However the fight will be quantity vs specific weight.
Juan Schiaretti, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Mauricio Macri in 2015.
The majority, counting the Larretismo, the UCR and the Civic Coalition is in favor of the incorporation of Schiaretti and José Luis Espert to the anti-K coalition.
Morales was the one who proposed adding Schiaretti, after maintaining a dialogue with the governor of Córdoba whom I have known for a long time. "I am in the mood to add and put my shoulder to him for what is coming," the Gringo told the governor of Jujuy.
In the Civic Coalition they remember that "we always had a vocation to expand and build broad spaces" and work "for the unity and triumph of Together for Change" but also to add.
While in the case of Miguel Pichetto with Federal Republican Encounter, they assure that they would also support the expansion, because they consider that "it is always better to add" and clarifying that we must work for the candidacy of Luis Juez and Rodrigo De Loredo for Córdoba Capital, their position is that "we must try to add those who are aligned with our proposals."
But those who oppose it are Patricia Bullrich, and probably also Mauricio Macri.
From the larretismo they list that in many provinces there are agreements with Peronists such as Miguel Pichetto, whom Macri appointed shortly before the closing of the lists; in Salta that had the support of Bullrich; in St. Louis with Claudio Poggi; in Tucumán with Germán Alfaro; in San Juan Marcelo Orrego; in the province of Buenos Aires with leaders who support the former Minister of Security such as Manuel Passaglia or Joaquín de la Torre.
Patricia Bullrich, with Senator Luis Juez and National Deputy Rodrigo De Loredo.
In Bullrichism they maintain that it is Larreta who wants to change the composition of the coalition "because he is losing the internal one", otherwise he would not move anything.
The two problems that afflict Together for Change are the conflicting interests of Larreta and Bullrich, and the loss of loyalty of the electorate in the brand.
"We are running the risk that this is the first election in which we cannot guarantee to maintain the votes between the PASO and the election," they say that Ernesto Sanz, one of the founders of Cambiemos, said in a meeting with leaders of the coalition, concerned about the situation of the opposition.
Sanz is one of the leaders always consulted, who maintains that the night of the PASO there is a cultural battle for the reading of the result, which is what finally defines the election. In 2015, Cambiemos won that discussion by showing that it could be in the second round and win, and Kirchnerism despite putting all the apparatus, could not overcome the initial triumph of Macri over Scioli. In 2019 it was the other way around, when that night showed the Kirchnerism forceful and for more Plaza del Sí and the important cut of votes that Cambiemos made, he ended up losing the election.
Perhaps the biggest problem is that on the night of August 13 in Together for Change they must come out to explain that the votes of Rodríguez Larreta, Bullrich, Espert and some other presidential candidate, if there is one, must be added. Do they really add up?
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Alberto plays at being President, Cristina controls everything and Massa lives on illusions
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Schiaretti yes or no? Larreta and Morales say yes; Bullrich, Macri and Sanz are against
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