Pro-Ukrainian forces managed to send drones to explode on residential and government buildings in Moscow and the city of Belgorod, near the Ukrainian border. But even those who were hopeful of this David against Goliath move should remember: This is exactly what the Iranians plan to do in Israel.
While the Western world is focusing on Iran's nuclear race, the Iranians are developing capabilities that may require a less well-oiled array of engineers and physicists, which could become a real tiebreaker in a war, even against a well-prepared and skilled country.
A small, smart GPS-oriented vehicle carrying explosives can easily make its way from any of the thousands of Hezbollah or Hamas launching stations to the Israeli home front. Its unpredictable runway bypasses Iron Dome technology, is cheap and easy to launch, and its spare parts can be purchased on Amazon – without endangering Iranian trucks that will have to evade Israeli sight. Even the legendary air force will find it difficult to deal with hundreds of drones sent to wreak havoc and chaos in Israel's cities.
Already during the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah tried to launch an Iranian drone at Israel. The vehicle was intercepted, but that was the beginning. In January 2022, IDF forces shot down a drone on the Lebanese border, and found photos indicating Hezbollah's systematic intelligence gathering using drones. In July 2022, the organization carried out another attack attempt and launched three drones at the Karish gas platform. These too were intercepted, but Iran's partners on the Israeli border learn from every failure. Already, it is estimated that Hezbollah alone has about 2,000 UAVs ready for use.
It is not only Israel that is in the crosshairs. In September 2019, Iran, through the Houthi rebels in Yemen, carried out a drone and cruise missile attack on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Iranian drones have served Putin, and in October 2022 launched a devastating attack on Kyiv.
Is Tel Aviv and Jerusalem doomed to become a local version of the bombed Kyiv? Will the next war include uncontrollable swarms of vehicles flying quickly and precisely toward strategic assets and residential buildings in Israel? Hanging. Alongside the development of a response in the fields of technology and cyber, there is also a need to address Iran's motivation to go on the offensive.
The 2015 nuclear deal expressed the idea that countries care more about their welfare than their survival, and that cooperation by world powers would cause Iran to focus on economic development and abandon its nuclear program. President Obama declared that the agreement "cuts off all of Iran's paths to the bomb," but last week's IAEA report made it clear that Iran worked vigorously to pave the way for the bomb even in the years immediately following the agreement. Iran's feasibility considerations apparently do not see economic sanctions as too severe.
Strengthening relations with Iran's neighbors and protecting ties with Putin is a vital Israeli interest, and even demonstrating its "long hand" can prove effective. Iran may not be intimidated by sanctions, but it probably doesn't want Tehran to look like Kyiv. It is worth reminding her from time to time – at the time, place and manner appropriate for Israel – that flying vehicles know how to fly not only in one direction.
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