Sums that add or sums that subtract? The possible incorporation of the governor of Córdoba Juan Schiaretti and the liberal referent José Luis Espert to Together for Change shook the internal less than 10 days of the closing of alliances and less than 20 of the deadline to present candidacies. And beyond the political noise, especially with the Peronist president, whose support was key for the Frente de Todos to pass controversial laws in Congress, the question is how much they contribute in electoral terms.
To evaluate the scenario, Clarín analyzed the latest polls they measured for the 2023 presidential election. And the numbers so far of both candidates are rather meagre, although they could be key in a closed election and where, except Javier Milei, there is no candidate who exceeds 20 points individually.
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Argentina chooses 2023
Schiaretti threw himself months ago into the arming of a moderate Peronism, outside the crack, trying to break the hegemony of the two great forces. An adventure similar to the one that failed in 2019 with Roberto Lavagna at the head. The Cordoban was presented with the Salta Juan Manuel Urtubey as a partner. Without moving the electoral needle, now the governor negotiates to join an opposition "front of Fronts", with the permission of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Elisa Carrió and Gerardo Morales, but with the rejection of Mauricio Macri and Patricia Bullrich.
Juan Schiaretti, the governor of Córdoba, and the idea of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta to add him to JxC. Photo file
In the case of Espert, after announcing at the end of the year his candidacy for governor of Buenos Aires, after the good election he made in 2021 and allowed him to get a seat as a deputy in the district for Avanza Libertad, he embarked on a negotiation to enter the PASO of Juntos but as a presidential variant. An agreement with the smell of larretismo, since its entry, it is presumed, could take away "vote for the right" from Bullrich, the archrival of the head of government.
Four surveys and key numbers
The latest polls accessed by this newspaper are from the consultants Opina Argentina, Opinaia, Synopsis and Universiad de San Andrés (Udesa). The first three have among their clients the City Government, but in the case of Opinaia, for example, they give it down in the bid with Bullrich.
The four measured Schiaretti in a presidential PASO and all, except Opina Argentina that left him out of the grid, already included Espert within the internal of Juntos. As anticipated from the start, the numbers of both were low.
The last national survey of the University of San Andrés (Udesa), where they measured José Luis Espert and Juan Schiaretti.
Udesa raised a bid in JxC with five candidates and Espert was fourth, with 1.5%, just one tenths more than the radical Gerardo Morales. He was surpassed by Larreta (10.6%), Bullrich (10.2%) and Facundo Manes (3.4%). The economist was also below a generic ("I do not know who but I would vote in the internal JxC") that added 2.4%. As for Schiaretti, he reached 2 points, which was enough to beat Urtubey (0.7%).
The last national survey of Opinaia, where they measured José Luis Espert and Juan Schiaretti.
Opinaia included Espert against six other leaders of JxC and did not take off either: he was at the bottom with just 1%, tied with Elisa Carrió and Miguel Angel Pichetto, and below Morales and Manes (with 2% each). In this case, Bullrich beat Larreta 12% to 8%. Schiaretti fared a little better: 4%, against Urtubey's 2%, in the internal Peronist non-K party.
The last national survey of Synopsis, where they measured José Luis Espert and Juan Schiaretti.
The third consultancy to include both was Synopsis. And the logic of the results was similar: Espert with 1.1% (behind Morales 2.4%, Manes 2.5%, Bullrich 10.7% and Larreta 11.5%) and Schiaretti 4.2%, in this case without internal rival.
The last national survey of Opina Argentina, where they measured Juan Schiaretti, but not José Luis Espert.
Argentina's opinion, as explained, did not measure Espert but the governor of Córdoba. He evaluated it in two PASO hypotheses and reached 4% in both cases.
Although these are low figures, they occur in a context of parity between the two forces of the rift and the ascendant Javier Milei.
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Opina Argentina proposes two triple ties, with 26 or 27 points for each space.
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Synopsis has Frente de Todos above with 30.4% (but in a scenario that included Cristina), with JxC at 28.2% and Milei at 24.4%.
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Opinaia puts JxC with 27%, Milei with 26% and the FdT at 20%.
- And Udesa is the one that raises the most staggered bid, with JxC with 29.5%, the FdT with 22.5% and Milei at 16.8%.
Anyway, as has been said thousands of times but it is worth repeating, in politics and less in elections, mathematics does not act in a linear way.
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