Mortifications: Macri against the pact with his friend Schiaretti
Time will tell if the Cambiemos-Schiaretti pact is 1) a brilliant move by Schiaretti to derail JxC's strategy in the Córdoba gubernatorial election; or 2) a brilliant move by the Larreta-Morales wing to hurt the chances of the Macri-Bullrich duo in the opposition's PASO; or a mistake by all.
The proposal is so thorny in Cambiemos – the force that pays best in the bets to win the elections – that Mauricio Macri will be obliged this Tuesday to say something. He goes to Córdoba, where the Schiarettismo threw a cluster grenade that has produced wounded who demand explanations. He owes them to those who use his capital to contradict him.
What do Mauricio's internal adversaries say to justify this rapprochement with Cordoba? 1) Macri is Schiaretti's best friend; 2) Córdoba is the place where Mauricio does best; 3) in his speech renouncing his candidacy, on March 26, he said, verbatim, that he was "convinced that the political space for change must be enlarged"; 4) he received in his office in Olivos Martín Llaryora, Schiaretti's candidate for governor and 5) legend has it that in 2019 he was able to offer Schiaretti to be his deputy, before the Pichetto option. With all that, he has to go to Córdoba to blow the shenanigans to the local candidates of Cambiemos. He will be at the Stock Exchange with Luis Juez, whom he also received gritting his teeth. He mislikes him as a candidate, but he couldn't stop him from running. In case they rush him in Córdoba about his proximity to the Gringo, Mauricio carries AMD (weapons of mass destruction) as the list of laws that the legislators of Schiaretti have meekly voted for this government. To do politics is to chew what you don't like.
Macri and Schiaretti
So far, a Cordovan business
The table of the presidents of Cambiemos will not define this Monday, as some expected, the proposal that Larreta and Morales discussed with Schiaretti, in the secret meeting at the house of the head of government the previous week. Carrió endorsed it at the dinner last Thursday with Larreta and Diego Santilli in El Mirasol of the Tortugas mall. But the climate to move forward is thick until Córdoba has defined the gubernatorial election.
Morales and Schiaretti believe that an agreement must be made before the registration of fronts – it happens on June 14, and only. El Gringo not only wants surrender in Córdoba, but JxC changes its name. Too much, if the business plan of the opposition strategists shows that a formal coalition with Schiaretti does not bring many votes to Cambiemos. According to his calculations, 70% of the vote of the "Gringo" is a vote from Córdoba. It has an important impact for being the second district in number of voters, but does not overturn the national results to win quietly in the first round. The rest (30% of the Gringo vote) comes from Peronism that was referenced until now in Roberto Lavagna and the pre-Cristina Alberto Fernández.
In the perception of Macri, contradictor of this agreement, the Peronist vote has to enter through the door of Pichetto's Federal Meeting.
Each election calls for a different coalition
Comments also come from the opposition. This agreement, according to Jesús Rodríguez – one of the best furnished heads of the opposition – is wrong and inopportune. "We are in an era of coalitions in the world, in the region and in Argentina. But, in presidential systems, the agreements between the coalitions materialize in the second round and in the exercise of the government. Ignoring this leads to trampling the reality of electoral sociology. In addition, he added on Sunday, it is a serious political error that underestimates the political intelligence of citizens."
Rodriguez understands that Argentina has a stable electoral sociology, which imposes different games according to each electoral instance. The PASO calls for a type of coalition. The first round is a non-binary option that modifies the coalitions of the PASO. A second round – a binary situation – forces a third form of coalitions in order to govern. The most effective strategy lies in understanding what type of coalition each turn requires, and applying lessons from experience, such as knowing how to play according to the electoral rules of each moment in Argentina.
The dilemma is not new
Already in 2015 the current opposition defined whether to admit Sergio Massa as an ally. The April convention in Gualeguaychú pitted Morales against each other in favor of that alliance, with the wing of Ernesto Sanz, who won the vote. It was one of the keys to victory in the November 2015 ballotage. Macri supported the result with the argument that an alliance with Massa would play Cambiemos within an internal fight of Peronism.
In 2019 the same thing was raised, in other terms, and it is likely that the defeat of Cambiemos that year was due to an inopportune decision. Cambiemos, which governed, should have encouraged the prominence of the table of Córdoba -Schiaretti, Pichetto, Massa, Roberto Lavagna, Juan Manuel Urtubey-. The government discouraged the growth of this alternative, which came together in 2017 up to 11 governors in the house of Tucumán, before whom Juan Manzur repeated "Cristina has already completed her political cycle." The leadership of Cambiemos – Macri, Marcos Peña – could fear that in 2019 that would precipitate a Schiaretti-Cristina bid that would leave JxC as mute witnesses. From there came the option of Pichetto vice, when it was no longer possible to reverse the result of the reunification of Peronism.
Today Macri can complain, again, that his strength may end up playing in an internal Peronism.
Espert a las gateras
José Luis Espert, pre-candidate for President, wants to join Together for Change.
The meeting of the presidents of Cambiemos this Monday will focus on two equally controversial issues. Larreta-Morales-Carrió ask for the agreement for José Luis Espert to enter as a presidential candidate. The PRO rejects that attempt. It presumes that it is a tool to diminish the chances of Patricia Bullrich, Macri's candidate. If there is no prior agreement for this initiative, it is possible that the meeting scheduled for 15 p.m. this Monday at the headquarters of the National Committee of the UCR will not be held. It depends on what Espert talks in the morning with the PRO delegates, who will discuss with him what role he will have in Cambiemos, if he joins the club. For Macri-Bullrich will be Federico Angelini, who is interim president of the PRO. There will be delegates from Larreta, who want him playing in the presidential PASO.
In the 2021 legislative elections, Espert won 7.9% of the vote. If he is a candidate and goes with Santilli's ticket, the Larretismo believes that he could define the result in favor of "Colorado" and Larreta. The same function can be fulfilled by the adhesion of Cecilia Hotton, who took 2.9% in the Buenos Aires legislative elections. Today Hotton is an official of the CABA in the larretista casts. Patricia's defense against this is the mention of polls that favor her. It is a melody that lacks the lyrics (and numbers). This legend catches on a lot in audiovisual commentators, a defenseless guild when it comes to precision – in addition, words are carried away by the wind. Who has seen these polls?, respond from the larretismo, which claims to have better, and in their favor.
The senate already has an owner: Pichetto
For this plan, Macrismo has two answers. One is to deny Espert a role in the national elections and encapsulate him in the province of Buenos Aires. What can they give him in return, when he is already a deputy? The senate does not, because Larreta and Macri's candidate for first national senator is Pichetto." We cannot lose Pichetto in the Senate," Macri said.
At the meeting-breakfast of the leadership of Cambiemos on April 28 at the house of María Eugenia Vidal, everyone agreed that Pichetto should be the candidate for national senator. Pichetto has not lowered the banner of his presidential candidacy. It has a complete government program in the press. It is the book "How to undertake Argentine development" that he has finished writing together with former minister José Roberto Dromi. "We don't want to deny what Perón did, Frondizi. Alfonsin and Menen," say the authors.
Bad prognosis for small parties
The other answer is to impose a high cut-off rate for those competing in the PASOs. Macrismo will move for a high floor for the d'Hont system, which distributes positions between majorities and minorities. That cut can be in 25% of the votes: whoever does not reach that floor in the PASO stays out. This liquefies the role of the small parties, which previously preferred to go outside Cambiemos (Espert, Hotton, in 2021) because they had no chance of reaching the floor.
At this afternoon's meeting of the presidents of Cambiemos will be the representatives who will discuss the delicate issue of the floor with Morales, Pichetto, Maxi Ferraro and Angelini (if it appears, because it always comes out by zoom and each decision refers it to a consultation with its commissioners). For the UCR the representative is Mariano Genovesi; Alberto Piotti is the Republican Encounter; Santiago Alberti goes for the PRO and Juan Manuel López for the Civic Coalition.
There will be no other issue, because the pact with Schiaretti is more than green and any step that those who are in favor try, will feed the vehemence of Macri to reject it and Patricia to pick up the wounded, especially in Córdoba, and put them in his ambulance.
The Court sharpens the knives
The Supreme Court will analyze the presentations against the new re-election of Gildo Insfrán in Formosa.
This Monday can also bear other fruits. It is the day when the trio that controls the Supreme Court of Justice meets: Horacio Rosatti, Carlos Rozenkrantz and Juan Carlos Maqueda. They come from overthrowing Juan Manzur and Sergio Uñac for new re-elections in their provinces. The arguments of the second ruling on the San Juan have left the door open for other re-election processes to be challenged. The most expectant is the questioning of Gildo Insfrán in Formosa. The arguments that served to remove Uñac from the race can feed a ruling that prevents the Formoseño from an eighth term as governor.
According to the doctrine of the Court, expressed especially in the concurrent vote of Rosenkrantz on Uñac, non-stop reelections contradict the republican principle of alternation. This principle is protected by the National Constitution and there is no possibility of provincial regulations nullifying its validity.
The other case that is already before the Court asks for the unconstitutionality of the law of the province of Buenos Aires, which allows a third term of local offices. That law negotiated by Cambiemos and Sergio Massa put the limit of two terms. An amendment negotiated a year ago allowed for a third re-election. It has been challenged by a former candidate of the Front that in 2017 integrated Sergio Massa and Margarita Stolbizer -Party 1 Country- and asks that the third renewal to a lot that could reach 2023 mayors be prevented in 90.
Is the Court in a position to make 90 enemies in the province of Buenos Aires? It does not seem timely. More so if the current amendment is not a green light for indefinite re-elections either. The Court fights hard battles with the ruling party, which is trying to impeach Congress. There are those who presume that Massa may be behind this request against the third term of the mayors, and thus have some tool of change for his own electoral projects. He has them, although he denies that he wants to run for president: there are two positions that he can comfortably have, such as being a candidate for first national senator for Buenos Aires, or repeating as a deputy.
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