The PRI's old stronghold has fallen. For the first time in 94 years, the Institutional Revolutionary Party will have to cede power in the State of Mexico. Morena has managed to snatch from the PRI its most precious jewel, the homeland of its last president, the most populous entity and with the greatest electoral weight in the country. The first electoral trends have confirmed this Sunday the triumph of Delfina Gómez, who will become the first woman in history to reach the governorship. They have also ratified the dominance of the party of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which had no registration just 10 years ago, already has 23 state governments with its allies, more than double that of the entire opposition as a whole. Never has a political force in Mexico grown so fast in such a short time. PRI candidate Manolo Jimenez will be the next governor of Coahuila, where he swept with more than twice as many votes as the runner-up, according to early estimates.
"The master battle was won. In a battle that lasted almost a century, the people of Edomex have decided to put an end to the Atlacomulco Group and its corruption," said Mario Delgado, the president of Morena, just minutes after the polls closed. "It is a victory for working families and women who have fought for our rights to be recognized," Gomez said in his acceptance speech, in which he called his triumph "a historic moment." Shortly after, the National Electoral Institute (INE) certified the victory by issuing a quick count that gave Gomez an irreversible advantage of about 10 points over the PRI Alejandra Del Moral, who admitted defeat despite the fact that at first she claimed victory, sheltered by the leaders of the Va por México alliance.
The shouts of "Governor, governor!" had sounded in the war room of Del Moral, who surprisingly proclaimed herself the winner of the race. "We won this election. I will be absolutely respectful of the electoral authority," Del Moral said, after the leaders of the PRI, the National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) raised their arms to her. The quick count settled any doubts. Del Moral acknowledged her defeat, this time alone and accompanied by second swords such as Santiago Creel and Beatriz Paredes: "I greet the teacher Delfina Gómez Álvarez, next governor." About half of Mexicans did not vote, according to early estimates.
The Va por México coalition is shaping up, for its part, to a resounding victory in Coahuila, where the first data give a comfortable advantage to Manolo Jiménez, candidate of the PRI, the PAN and the PRD. "Here in Coahuila a very important message is sent: the magic formula is work in unity," Jimenez said in his acceptance speech. The victory in Coahuila territory is the main argument of the opposition partners that the papers were saved in this year's elections, with an overall score of a tie for one governorship per side. But there are several warning signs behind triumphalist speeches. The PRI and the PAN retreated with respect to the 2017 elections, in which they obtained more than 70% of the votes competing with each other, and the new electoral map of the country anticipates that the tricolor will be limited to only two governorships, Durango and Coahuila, the only state in the country where there has been no political alternation.
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"Morena is the big winner of the night, because of the visibility and electoral weight of the State of Mexico," says Alejandro Díaz Domínguez, a professor at the School of Government of Tec de Monterrey. There are several specialists who question the notion that this year's votes ended with a "tie". Because the State of Mexico has a register of more than 12.5 million voters and Coahuila barely exceeds 2.5 million voters. Because the Edomex is the second economic engine of the country, because Morena has established itself as the main force in the urban centers —with the exception of Monterrey and Guadalajara—, because of its budgetary weight, because of the centralism that still prevails in the country and because the victory of the president's party was made at the expense of the PRI machinery. that once seemed impregnable and unbeatable. Also because of the political moment in which the collapse occurs for the opposition, practically a year before the 2024 elections.
"Morena has cannibalized a PRI on its knees and that already has very little to defend," says analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor. For the president's party, the election in the State of Mexico was key in its process of electoral expansion, but also because of the correlation of forces that remains from tonight's results, says Bravo Regidor. All the opposition has been reduced to nine governorships, while Morena already governs around 7 out of 10 Mexicans in the state order. Before the arrival of the icing wave, the president's party started this six-year term with only seven governors. "The warning was at the door," adds the specialist, "Delfina Gomez had already stayed very close six years ago and it gives the impression that the PRI did not heed those warnings to avoid the debacle or reverse the reputational burden it has become."
Morena sought to give that blow of authority, not only in the face of citizens, but also by absorbing and weakening the structure on which its rivals rely to compete. The results not only show the migration of voters, they also point to the transfer of operators, cadres and resources to mobilize in the next campaigns. "For Morena it was important to send the PRI to the canvas, tear out its hair and pay for the narrative that the opposition is defeated," says Miguel Eraña, an academic at the Universidad Iberoamericana. Several party leaders joined in the congratulations. "Mexico continues to make history," celebrated Claudia Sheinbaum, the head of Mexico City's government. "Perseverance and consistency in the social and political struggle always succeed," said Senator Ricardo Monreal. "A great triumph of the cause in which we militate," said Marcelo Ebrard, the foreign secretary.
But it's not all good news for Morena. The failure of Armando Guadiana in Coahuila is the reflection of a campaign marked by fragmentation and in which the lack of agreements to build a unity candidacy was paid dearly, a possibility still latent in 2024. When the party's president, Mario Delgado, forced the Labor Party (PT) and the Green Party to leave their candidates adrift, it was too late. It was a warning that his allies not only weigh for the votes they can bring to the governing bloc, but also for their ability to pick up figures within the movement who have felt "mistreated" or who are not satisfied with the method to distribute the candidacies. Díaz Domínguez assures that the minority allies have revalued themselves and have more elements to negotiate. "Before they were seen only as 'satellite' or 'business' parties, now they have become safeguards to prevent ruptures from leading dissent to the opposition," he says.
After an election that tested coalitions, polls and current electoral rules, the figures of Coahuila and the State of Mexico also account for changes in Mexican voters, their demands and the bets to convince them. "It's no longer the electorate of 30 years ago, it's much more complex," says Luz María Cruz Parcero, an academic at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. "There are still strong patronage pacts, but there are more and more signs that the generalizations that were made are no longer so useful and that voters are increasingly rational and demanding," he adds.
The closing of the election day was the last rehearsal before 2024 and also marks the starting signal for next year's presidential elections. Almost the morning after the victory speeches and celebratory parties in the war rooms of the campaigns, both coalitions will begin discussing who their candidates will be and how they will be elected. Now all eyes are on the race for succession.
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