The Saudi leadership is not counting on improving relations with Iran, and believes Tehran will violate the agreement as soon as it can, according to senior officials in Riyadh. According to them, the perception that the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has blocked the possibility of future progress toward normalization with Israel is incorrect.
Saudi officials with whom we spoke in recent days said that the leadership in Riyadh still sees Iran as a rival, and that the agreement with it will not fundamentally change relations. "We have no doubts about the Iranians," they said, "and it's hard to believe that the agreement will hold water. It needs to be seen for what it is, without far-reaching analyses. Iran has neither become an innocent lamb nor a twin sister of Saudi Arabia. The regime in Tehran remains hostile to Saudi Arabia, it aspires to take over Mecca and Medina and institute Shiite hegemony in the Gulf and the Middle East."
The main goal - to get closer to China. The signing of the Saudi-Iran agreement, photo: Reuters
The main goal behind signing the agreement with Iran, they said, was actually to get closer to China, which mediated between the sides and sponsored the move. China is one of the largest consumers of Saudi oil, while Saudi Arabia imports from China extensively, so Riyadh decided to "make a goodwill gesture" toward Beijing.
A big step towards China
According to the officials, the agreement was born when China offered to mediate between the two countries, considered the world's largest oil exporters. Riyadh agreed to the Chinese proposal even though it included some problematic conditions, in order to prove to the Chinese that the Saudis are willing to go with them even at a difficult price. Among other things, this involves restoring relations with Syria, a move that is not received favorably on the Saudi street.
The agreement was born when China offered to mediate between the two countries. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, photo: EPA
Syrian President Bashar Assad's invitation to the Arab League conference in Jeddah was a frog that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had to swallow because of the Iran deal. To soften this move, bin Salman signaled to the West that he was still an ally by inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to address the conference in the face of Assad's "brazen" speech, according to the Saudis.
Now, Saudi Arabia feels that it has taken a big step towards China and is convinced that Iran will violate the agreement at the near opportunity, as it has done many times. The chances of success of this agreement in the long run, Riyadh concludes, seem slim. Thus, the Saudis emphasize that the agreement with Iran does not come at the expense of progress through other diplomatic channels, and that Tehran has no influence in this matter.
Saudi officials: "Iran has not become an innocent lamb or twin sister of Saudi Arabia. We have no doubts about the Iranians."
Saudi Arabia is aware of Israel's concern over the agreement, in light of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's intention to advance normalization efforts between the two countries. In recent months, the Saudis have publicly claimed that the question of normalization with Israel is still in the same place, according to which Israel must strive to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians before they can reach full normalization with Riyadh.
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