If a candidacy were defined only by the support of political sectors, Eduardo "Wado" de Pedro would be the number one of Kirchnerism heading to the PASO. The Minister of the Interior reaps the support of La Cámpora, the bulk of governors, mayors, unions and social movements that make up the Frente de Todos and received winks from Cristina Kirchner to settle prior to the closing of lists.
But in politics there is a maxim that campaign consultants often repeat that threatens their arming and puts their chances in check: nobody votes for someone they do not know.
De Pedro accelerated his movements three weeks ago, when Cristina was enthusiastic about "the children of the decimated generation taking the post" and invited him to add political muscle. From there the minister made an effort to seek adhesions to his candidacy and, despite some initial doubts, managed to bring together broad sectors of the FdT and even leaders confronted with Kirchnerism, such as the gastronomic Luis Barrionuevo.
Wado de Pedro was shown with Máximo Kirchner and wove alliances in a meeting with mayors K of the Conurbano
But it was the support of the head of La Cámpora, Máximo Kirchner, who until then pushed the idea of a single candidacy in charge of Sergio Massa, which generated that a good part of the leadership closed ranks behind him.
The biggest obstacle
His great obstacle, however, remains his low level of knowledge. It is marked by several of the main consultants and, consequently, it is on the lips of the leadership of the Frente de Todos. Even among the enthusiasts who choose him as a candidate and see inevitable internal competition in the PASO with a list sponsored by the Casa Rosada and headed by Daniel Scioli.
His team rejects the versions and maintains that, since it was launched, those numbers changed drastically. "Wado is doing very well, he doubled his knowledge and intention to vote compared to a month ago," one of his campaign strategists told Clarín, who relativizes the numbers of other consultants.
It shows the detail of a survey of Analogies, which in May places him with 71% knowledge and almost 44% positive image and just over 50% negative.
In an average of seven polls published by journalist Eduardo Paladini in this newspaper, he averages 5.4% of voting intention in an internal FdT. In the one that is best located, it holds 9.9%.
And when measured alone, without internal rivals, it adds up to just 14.3%. That is, it is the one that least retains the twenty-five and thirty points of space.
In spite of everything, among De Pedro's collaborators there is optimism and they believe that in the final sprint, with the agenda focused on the minister, he will be able to reach the closing of lists with 80% knowledge.
It is not a shared feeling in all power terminals. And, strictly speaking, not in hard Kirchnerism either.
Patience that runs out
"You have to wait... It is true that it has not yet taken off, but it can be defined in two weeks and has room to rise, "warns, cautiously, a governor of a northern province that will not go through shocks to retain power.
"There is not much time left. He is putting all the claw, but in two weeks it is difficult for him to change too much and with this it is not enough to fight even the second place. It's going to have to be Axel (Kicillof), even if he doesn't want to," says a mayor of the Buenos Aires PJ aligned with Maximo Kirchner but impatient because, according to his vision, they are exposed to "a historic beating" in the Conurbano.
Mayors of the suburbs insist on a national candidacy of Axel Kicillof.
To the problem of De Pedro's low level of knowledge, an ultrakirchnerist legislator adds a seasoning little noticed in the public debate: the intransigence of Daniel Scioli, who repeats that he is not going to get off even at the request of Cristina.
According to his analysis, the competence of the Buenos Aires governor changes the dynamic. He points out that De Pedro will not be able to benefit from an active vice president during the campaign: he anticipates that the risk involved for her that the minister loses the internal one with Scioli, whose figure is known by more than 9 out of ten Argentines, will result in his intervention being limited, only as a testimony of his leadership.
"That's why I think it has to be her or Axel," he insists, although in public he can be heard praising the Mercedino.
There is another version, denied by its protagonist, which realizes that in this context a long-time leader proposed to Máximo Kirchner something bolder: that, in the face of Kicillof's refusal, and Massa's decision not to be a candidate if there are inmates; He would be the one to head the presidential ballot.
In La Cámpora, as this newspaper said, they mark that the surname Kirchner "has to be" but not for that position: everything indicates that he would go first in the list of Deputies for the province of Buenos Aires. "That is not a possibility, nobody raised it or I did not listen to it," says a surprised leader of the organization.
However, this Tuesday De Pedro received a boost from the Minister of Public Works, Gabriel Katopodis, for his media installation plan: he placed him in a central place in an event with PJ governors at the Kirchner Cultural Center. For now, no one will take away public support.