In eastern German states, the AfD is particularly strong. In the coming year, three of them will have state elections. Is an AfD prime minister imminent?
Potsdam/Dresden/Erfurt – The AfD is once again at the center of many political debates. The reason: the party's recent high in the polls. Depending on the polling institute, it is currently at 17 to 19 percent - and thus roughly on a par with the collapsed chancellor's party, the SPD, and ahead of the Greens. What causes perplexity among many with the German glasses has long been a reality in some eastern German states, manifested in election results and not only in polls.
In the last state election in Thuringia, the AfD won 22.0 percent of the vote, according to the official election results. In Brandenburg it was 23.5 percent in the same year and in Saxony even 28.4 percent. Despite the strong performance in many elections, the right-wing populists have not yet been part of the government in any federal state. In 2024, the next state elections are due in the three countries - and currently the AfD is ahead in polls in all three. In some cases with values of 30 percent and more. A strong AfD is therefore not new in parts of eastern Germany. In the federal government, 17 to 19 percent are nevertheless an announcement.
AfD federal spokesman Tino Chrupalla and federal spokeswoman Alice Weidel are likely to like the current poll results. © Michael Schick
Extremism researcher Kailitz: End of AfD high not in sight
The established parties are looking for the causes of the AfD high. CDU General Secretary Mario Czaja sees the blame in the traffic light government and its disputes. According to extremism researcher Steffen Kailitz, however, the behavior of the other parties is comparatively unimportant for the success of the AfD. Instead, it depends on the economic situation of their most important issue: migration. Thus, the AfD still mobilizes the most supporters, Kailitz told the magazine Stern. Because of the rising migration figures, the political scientist does not expect the AfD poll high to come to an end soon.
Kailitz, who conducts research at the Hannah Arendt Institute for Research on Totalitarianism at the Technical University of Dresden, advises the traffic light government to concentrate on solving problems. Whether something benefits the AfD or not, on the other hand, should only be secondary. CDU leader Friedrich Merz recently provided another possible reason for the AfD high: gendering in news broadcasts. In a survey conducted by the Insa Institute for the "Bild" newspaper, however, only three percent of all respondents named gender language as decisive for their voting decision.
Fear of a shift to the right - will the AfD soon have a prime minister?
In the same survey, a majority of 62 percent said they were afraid of a shift to the right in view of the AfD's poll results. A lot can still happen before the state elections in autumn 2024. If, however, the AfD should actually become the strongest force in Saxony, for example, with over 30 percent, the formation of a government there is likely to be much more difficult. Also because the FDP may not get over the five percent hurdle and the CDU rules out a coalition with the Left Party. However, this is comparatively strong in the east.
0
Also Read
Dam demolition with "diabolical calculation": experts name Russia's goals behind the action
READ
Germany behind Thailand: These are the most powerful armies in the world
READ
Modern battle tanks from the West meet Putin's defensive wall
READ
Fake Putin proves: The situation in Russia "is out of control"
READ
Russia's silent super-submarines – Putin apparently sends his "black holes" into the Pacific
READ
Fancy a voyage of discovery?
My Area
Because no one wants to form a coalition with the AfD, the CDU, SPD and Greens would have to join forces – if they get a majority together. In Brandenburg, the chances are good, according to polls, that the three parties mentioned could form a government together. In the case of Thuringia, the situation is different. Polls put the Left Party in second place after the AfD. The CDU and SPD are comparatively weak, and the Greens even have to fear for their re-entry into the state parliament. As the strongest force, the AfD could make claims to form a government. In practice, however, it can be assumed that the other parties will do everything they can to prevent a government with AfD participation.