It is one of those tables in which it is convenient to appear last. A new national poll that measured the rejection of 14 presidential candidates generated a strong impact on both sides of the rift. It was made by Zuban Córdoba, a consultancy already installed in the world of politics, with clients in Together for Change and Frente de Todos. He assessed what is known as "electoral potential," in which one of the key questions is who he would "never vote for." The numbers of all the leaders evaluated were very bad.
The study to which Clarín accessed was based on a survey of 1,300 face-to-face cases throughout the country, between May 26 and June 1. Results were presented with +/- 2.72% margin of error.
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Argentina chooses 2023
To have a parameter of the disenchantment that public opinion has today with politicians, it is worth a fact. The one who did better (or least worse) in the field was Javier Milei: he ended up with a rejection / I would never vote for him of 62.3%.
As Clarín explained, this is a very important fact in elections such as the presidential elections that can be defined with a runoff. It is presumed that a leader with more than 50% of the rejection could not win a second round, unless he competes against another in the same condition. This is what would be happening in Argentina, according to data from Zuban Córdoba.
It is also what would explain why Cristina and Macri have decided to run from this electoral turn. The rejection generated by their figures is so high that they feared being defeated in a hand-to-hand. It was also what motivated, 20 years ago, that Carlos Menem ran out of the dispute with Néstor Kirchner despite being the most voted in the first round.
With more than 70% rejection
The table prepared by the consultancy with the electoral potential of 14 candidates, can be divided into two, based on the rejection numbers. There are six of the candidates evaluated that add up to more than 70% of "I would never vote for him" and eight, that exceed 60%.
The first table is very diverse. The worst is a Peronist from Together for Change (Miguel Angel Pichetto), but there is also a radical from that alliance (Facundo Manes), two moderate PJs (the former allies? Juan Schiaretti and Juan Manuel Urtubey), and two pro-government supporters (Juan Grabois and Agustín Rossi).
With these numbers:
Pichetto 82.9% "I would never vote for it."
Urtubey 78.6% "I would never vote for it."
Rossi 76.9% "I would never vote for it."
Grabois 76.6% "I would never vote for it."
Schiaretti 74.4% "I would never vote for it."
Manes 72.6% "I would never vote for it."
With more than 60% rejection
In the friendliest part of the ranking, although also with a strong negative tone, the most competitive candidates appear. As anticipated at the start of the note, the least bad in this case is Milei. The libertarian leader has 62.3% of "I would never vote for him", against 62.6% of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
In favor of the economist, when you look at the other part of the measurement, you contrast a much higher sure vote: 18.9% against 12.9% of the head of government.
But back to the rejection, worse than both of them is going to these six leaders:
Gerardo Morales 69.5% "would never vote for him."
Daniel Scioli 69.4% "would never vote for him."
Wado de Pedro 66.7% "would never vote for him".
Patricia Bullrich 65.8% "I would never vote for it."
Axel Kicillof 65.6% "I would never vote for it."
Sergio Massa 65% "I would never vote for it."
As for the safe / floor vote, a striking and worrying fact for the candidates is that in addition to Milei and Larreta only two of those evaluated reach double digits in this item: Bullrich with 11.7% and Massa with 10.8%. Another symptom of disenchantment.