A master move, López Obrador resolves the succession

The approach that Andrés Manuel López Obrador now makes about the succession not only clarifies the panorama and dilutes clouds, it also lays the foundations of what will be the obradorismo in its second season. And, incidentally, it confirms that the phenomenon that has been the Tabasco in political matters is not only the product of circumstances or luck, but of a singular talent. Let's see why.

What is the highlight of these presidential instructions and what are their consequences? The new criteria, briefly summarized, are: the pre-candidates will have to resign from their current responsibilities (before June 15) to participate in the pre-campaign; there will be only one poll and the criteria and definition of the polling house must be agreed among the four main contenders; the winner of the poll will be the presidential candidate of Morena, the second place will be the coordinator of the senators from 2024, the third will be the coordinator of the deputies and the fourth will be part of the Cabinet of the next Government; The survey will take place in August and there will be results no later than the beginning of September.

The implications of this approach change many things:

1.- It greatly decreases the risk of a schism in the movement by establishing the foundations of a much more even floor. By requesting the resignation of all those involved so that they compete outside the institutions, it satisfies one of the demands made by Marcelo Ebrard; By asking that the definition of polling houses (and probably questions) be obtained by consensus among the participants, it eliminates the main objections and suspicions of the inevitable defeated.

2.- It turns the succession not into the delivery of the courier to a person but to a team. Until now, the struggle for the official candidacy of Morena had been understood as a battle of the "winner takes everything" type, as the gubernatorial contests usually are. But now the survey would not only be defining the head of the executive branch, but also that of the legislative branch. With that, López Obrador is achieving several things simultaneously: he imposes the notion that what follows is not a matter of people but of political and ideological current; It should not be forgotten that the coordinators of the legislative branch traditionally resulted from a decision of the incoming president; On this occasion, however, they will have been rivals of that president (or president) and would be there by design of the founder of the movement. Incidentally, that would offer an element of containment in the hypothetical case that Morena's successor in the National Palace turns out to be a fiasco due to incapacity or disloyalty; in such circumstances from the legislative power the obradorismo could nuance or neutralize in part the Executive (and not forget that the possibility of the revocation of mandate in the middle of the sexennium would be in force).

3.- At the same time that it detracts from the role of the next president in favor of the group, at least at the beginning, it strengthens the capacity of the new government to give continuity to the Fourth Transformation. Why? One of the main concerns for the continuity of Q4 is and will continue to be the weakness of Obradorismo once López Obrador is not at the helm. To put it quickly, whoever replaces López Obrador will not have the same charisma, popularity, power over the tribes of the left or ascendancy over other real powers (military, governors, businessmen, union leaders, etc.). Claudia Sheinbaum or Marcelo Ebrard, each in a different way, falls short and I do not say this to their detriment, but in recognition of the unrepeatable peculiarities of López Obrador's leadership. But together, the deficit is smaller. If Sheinbaum remains president, Ebrard would be an extraordinary political operator among lawmakers and interest groups; and conversely, if Ebrard is the successor in the Palace, Sheinbaum would give him legitimacy among the obradoristas of the Chambers.

Three weeks ago I explained in this space precisely the benefits of contemplating the scenario of Ebrard as coordinator of the senators, assuming that the trends were maintained in favor of Claudia. "It seems to me unlikely the possibility of a position in the Cabinet of his current rival, a position of subordination that would be uncomfortable for both. A more useful task could be the coordination of the Senate, in the way that Ricardo Monreal did in this sexennium. Sheinbaum would be a less strong president than López Obrador, no doubt, and will need an operation of enormous skill in the Legislative Branch to carry out budgets and initiatives of the next government. Ebrard's professional ability, experience and relations with the opposition would make him the best Q4 card for that task. And better yet for him, they would put him on the platform for the 2030 competition. Nor is it a natural scenario, because the edges that have emerged between Claudia and Marcelo would have to be smoothed out, but it is an option that López Obrador could see with good eyes. He knows that, whoever wins, the next president will not have his strength and, consequently, the momentum for transformation and governance could weaken. A dumbbell Claudia and Marcelo, Executive Power and Legislative Power, could be an interesting formula to face the many challenges to continue the project of change of the 4T". I don't know if the president has read my column or not, but I welcome the coincidence. López Obrador has in mind a much more transcendent and ambitious project.

4.- By securing a definition for next September and having forced the four contenders to resign from their current positions, in practice the president manages to have one more year to the four united in the campaign team. Not only that. You will have a long period of twelve months to mentor them and prepare them for succession. In this way, I insist, he makes sure to pass the baton to a team, not to a person exclusively (that in the end he gets it is something else: the roots of presidentialism is not minor).

5.- By offering conditions of a more even floor and designing a winner-take-all scheme, the president is opening up the range for succession itself. Far more important than ensuring that a "loyalist" receives the baton is that the movement sticks together. In a way that means the game is more open than simply betting everything on a favorite. While Sheinbaum is leading in the polls of voting intentions, Ebrard would have to read this redefinition of rules as a real opportunity to compete with better opportunities. The contest gets good; There will be something for everyone, the question is what each one will take.

@jorgezepedap

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