This satellite image, provided by Maxar Technologies via AP, shows the destroyed Kakhovka Dam. © Uncredited/Maxar Technologies/AP/dpa
Near the Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka, a violent explosion destroys an important dam. The word war crimes is mentioned. But responsibility and motive remain unclear for the time being.
Nova Kakhovka - In Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, which has been going on for more than 15 months, the explosion at the Kakhovka Dam is another terrible low point. After the destruction of the adjacent hydroelectric power plant, many questions remain unanswered.
What we know
The area: The Kakhovka Dam and the adjacent hydroelectric power plant are located in the city of Nova Kakhovka in the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine's Kherson region. Russia had invaded neighboring Ukraine in February 2022 and then also occupied the Kherson region. However, the regional capital of the same name is under Ukrainian control, while cities south of the Dnipro such as Nova Kakhovka are in Russian hands. The river, which is roughly the front line in this area, will be dammed in Nova Kakhovka for the sixth and last time in front of the Black Sea over a length of 200 kilometers.
The devastation: After a heavy explosion at the important dam, the adjacent hydroelectric power plant is also affected, according to both warring parties. The dam, which was built near the war front and put into operation in the mid-1950s, has been destroyed. The hydroelectric power plant is also completely ruined. It is suspected that the dam was blown up. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the detonation is said to have occurred early Tuesday morning at around 02.50 local time (01.50 CEST).
The past: It has long been feared that the dam could be destroyed and the area flooded. Because it is not the first time that he has been the target of attacks. In the fall of 2022, for example, Ukrainian forces attacked the bridge over the dam with precision strikes and disrupted Russian supplies. Russian troops, on the other hand, had caused further considerable damage during retreats with controlled demolitions. Soon the bridge was no longer passable. Particular concern was caused by the occupiers announcing the evacuation of Nova Kakhovka in November.
The nuclear power plant: There is no immediate danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant located at the northern end of the reservoir, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Russian nuclear company Rosenergoatom. According to the IAEA, however, measures are being taken in the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant to continue operating the cooling systems that are normally fed with the dammed water. It is important to prevent the reactor cores and nuclear waste from overheating dangerously.
What we don't know
The responsibility: Moscow and Kiev blame each other for the explosion. While Ukraine accuses Russia of state terrorism and compares the act to the use of a weapon of mass destruction, Moscow accuses Ukrainian troops of shelling and deliberate sabotage. Neither side has provided any evidence so far. The West also blames Russia for the act. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) accuses Moscow of increasingly attacking civilian targets. For NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the act shows "once again the brutality of Russia's war in Ukraine". British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly speaks of a "war crime".
The motive: There is speculation that the incident could be an act of Russian sabotage to slow down a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Moscow denies this. The floods particularly affect the Russian-occupied region south of the Dnipro, which is considered a major target of such a possible advance. In an interview with "t-online", military expert Carlo Masala of the Bundeswehr University in Munich sees Russia as responsible. Moscow wants to hinder a counteroffensive by Ukraine.
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My Area
The implications: It is still unclear how much the floods will devastate the area. Large parts of the region could be under water. The city of Kherson is located about 50 kilometers downstream as the crow flies. Shortly after the explosion, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal spoke of a flood risk for up to 80 villages. Scientists at Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences have calculated in an early modelling that 60,000 people could be affected, about a third of them at risk. According to the governor of the Kherson region, Oleksandr Prokudin, 16,000 people are in the danger zone. The EU spoke of hundreds of thousands of civilians whose lives were at risk. There is no information on possible injuries at first.
The environmental catastrophe: According to information from the Ukrainian leadership, which cannot be independently verified, at least 150 tons of machine oil entered the Dnipro River. Another 300 tons of oil were still in danger of leaking. Flora and fauna will certainly be affected.
The supply: Southern towns and also the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which has been annexed by Russia, could face a shortage of water supply, as they are supplied from the Kakhovka reservoir. This will become apparent in the coming days. Upstream villages could also be affected if the huge water reservoir for agriculture, for example, is missing. The destruction of the hydroelectric power plant could also contribute to Ukraine's energy problems. Dpa
