It is difficult to immerse a Cordovan in confusion, although in Cordoban politics there are plenty of experts in looking for confusion. But this time Larreta went rather hand in hand with the move to raise Schiaretti and his Peronism in the middle in Cambiemos, two weeks before Cambiemos faces Schiaretti in Córdoba.
He put together a mess flower. Larreta subordinates everything to his presidential candidacy. The polls give him the excuse: they say that he loses the Cordovan internal against Bullrich and he is excited about overturning the result if he puts Schiaretti as vice. Electoral calculation, presented under the rhetoric that it is necessary to expand Cambiemos to ensure governability later. Although there is a lot of truth in that.
Footnote: Placing Schiaretti in two will cause him great displeasure with his main partner, radicalism. But that's another story. Who gains from this crisis in Cambiemos? It goes without saying, but we will say it. Cristina wins and Milei wins. And Schiaretti wins, because he puts wholesale confusion among the voters of Cambiemos de Córdoba and raises the chances of his candidate for governor, Martín Llaryora, who is already ahead in the polls.
Luis Juez loses and also, perhaps, Rodrigo de Loredo, who fights for the intendancy of the Capital. Curiosities of politics, which has so well managed to lead the country to decadence in perpetual acceleration: Judge was a close ally of Larreta and De Loredo an ally of other allies of Larreta, those of Radical Evolution of Yacobitti and Lousteau.
Larreta is convinced, or they have convinced him, for that matter it is the same, that he has almost no votes to fish within the Pro, where the preferences are for Bullrich. "They don't want us," confesses his campaign manager Straface. They believe that their fate depends on the radical voter, historically reluctant to vote for a Peronist, and also on the Peronists of that imaginary middle avenue that years ago Massa patented as his own. We all know with what results.
But the argument of expanding to govern, incorporating third parties, has a problem that even beginners see: the danger of fracture. And if that happens, everyone loses. Together it requires unanimity, that is, not black ball of the current partners to incorporate a new one. Schiaretti, a master at raising the price in an election year, accompanied since 2019 in everything to Kirchnerism in Congress. He was a key partner in getting key laws out: from the scandalous moratorium for the serial evader Cristóbal López, who thus recovered his companies, to the defunding of Larreta himself.
Larreta may try to repeat Keynes's famous question: "When facts change, I change my mind. And you sir?" It is a decision that he simmered and anticipated, not as a matter of principle but of convenience, and without discussing it in his party. The goal: to win the internal one. He risks much more than his allies Schiaretti and Morales from Jujuy, who is doing as well as governor and badly as head of the radicalism: he expresses a minority sector. Probably, the move will end up bringing to the village of Bullrich most of the radical Buenos Aires mayors, who are not few, along with others from Pro. Santilli, Larreta's gubernatorial candidate, is another of those who will suffer the most from the effects of the new alliance.
In the imaginary of larretismo is occupying the progressive center and pushing Macri and Bullrich towards the world of the right, sticking them to Milei. A way to redistribute two-thirds of Christina's prophecy or half prophecy. In parentheses: very rare in Peronism, even in its K version, to anticipate that third parties may arrive.
Carrió, who distributes selective certificates of progressivism, spoke of Macri's dark side and blamed him for pushing Larreta to break. She's not right, but she's not entirely wrong either. It does not speak well of Macri who, as head of space, has ceased to be neutral and rigged Bullrich. Americans have a word (both sidesing) to qualify the tendency to criticize the two sides to seek a false objectivity: in this case, the responsibilities are not comparable.
The candidacies are the conflict in which the whole life of Cambiemos is settled. And it will not be the first or the last time that politics, which does not agree on what is essential for everyone, all and even everyone, is distracted from plans with possible, concrete solutions to stop the debacle and complicates them with complicated transversality plans, already tried and not long ago and with results to forget.
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