The future of Rocío Monasterio in Madrid, in question

Rocío Monasterio appeared on the election night of 28M with a broad smile to say that Vox was "proud" of the result in the Community of Madrid, but her image of loneliness on the lectern did not deceive. It was the scene of a losing candidate. Not even Macarena Olona was so alone when the party suffered its disappointment last year in Andalusia. Then the leadership of the party, including the boss, Santiago Abascal, appeared next to the aspiring Andalusian president on stage in Seville. No one accompanied Monasterio. After four and a half minutes in which he congratulated himself on the debacle of Podemos, he vanished.

That lack of support raises doubts about whether Monasterio will resist in his post for four more years or if his days in regional politics are numbered. The comparison with Olona does not bode well either. The Andalusian candidate fell out of favor even though support for Vox grew there from 11 to 13%. In the case of Madrid, the numbers have worsened, falling from 9 to 7%, although in their case expectations were low. It was taken for granted that he faced a tough rival for the right-wing vote, President Isabel Díaz Ayuso, but it was hoped that he could prevent the absolute majority of the PP and maintain the relevance of Vox in the Assembly.

No one in Vox has openly asked for the replacement of Monasterio, who next Tuesday is summoned to the Assembly for the constituent session, but press reports and sources close to the party consulted by EL PAÍS indicate that there is discomfort. Abascal, who personally controls the party, threw in the towel in Madrid during the campaign and preferred to concentrate his rallies in other communities where he had a better perspective. Vox's state leader acknowledged the day after the election that they expected "better results" in Madrid and added that they would try to "analyze" what happened.

A possible exit for Monasterio would be a high position in the lists for deputies to Congress on 23J. But that fate is not assured, according to a source who knows Abascal very well and believes he wants to put her in charge of the party's think tank, the Disenso Foundation. At the end of March, already in a pre-campaign atmosphere, Monasterio traveled to Peru for an initiative of that center. "They have sent her to Latin America, a task that used to be reserved for (MEP) Hermann Tertsch or (MP) Victor Gonzalez," says this source. "It seems that he is preparing her for that new role and left her as a candidate on 28M even though he knew it would mean her political death."

However, Monasterio has an influential ally in the leadership of Vox, her husband Iván Espinosa de los Monteros. He has valued with a "chapeau" the campaign of the candidate. In a thread analyzing the 28M, he gave a generous interpretation by saying that Monasterio would still be decisive had it not been for Vice President Yolanda Díaz, the leader of Sumar, whom he accused of mounting a "mess" on the left that caused the loss of seats of Podemos and the absolute majority of Ayuso. "By the way," he continued, "Rocío's campaign, with all the media against it, without institutional advertising, without advertising or posters, with two magnificent debates, and at street level ... Also, Chapeau. Now that has been a manual of resistance! (sic)".

Monasterio was one of Vox's heavyweights in the fall of 2018, when the party surprised by filling the Vistalegre Palace and then storming the Andalusian Parliament. The four who appeared together on stage or who gave separate interviews were Abascal, Espinosa de los Monteros, Javier Ortega Smith and Monasterio. "She was given a visibility that she has lost," says another source who has dealt closely with the leadership. "It gives the impression that it is no longer in that circle, new people have entered and they have also had to verify that it is not worth it." Another member of that Sanhedrin who may suffer the consequences of 28M is Smith. He has achieved one more councilor (from four to five), but his role in the Madrid City Council will be marginal because José Luis Martínez-Almeida got an absolute majority and will no longer need to agree with him. Abascal already displaced Smith last year from the party's general secretariat to give him one of the three vice presidencies.

Others think that Monasterio or Smith are still privileged. They are part of Abascal's "chupipandi," says Antonio de Miguel, who left the party two weeks ago after being a member of the National Political Council and municipal spokesman in Guadalajara. "There are many of us who have fought as true warriors but have been ignored, while others were treated as viceroys who are allowed everything. But this is a consequence of a party without internal democracy where Abascal decides everything," says De Miguel, who has joined Olona's new party, Caminando Juntos.

Hostile campaign of Losantos

Monasterio has not been helped by the campaign against her by right-wing commentator Federico Jiménez Losantos. In January, he invited her to his radio station to blame her for Ayuso's failure to produce the budgets. "I am against Vox voting with the communists against the PP," he reproached. "You voted with Monica Garcia." "I'm a Vox voter and you're not defending me," Losantos continued, "you're disabusing me."

The hostility of the influential commentator of the Madrid right probably had a considerable impact. She has a negative image even for the PP electorate, which scored her with a 4.8 in the last pre-election poll of 40dB. for EL PAÍS. A listener of Losantos, Ezequiel Francis, decided to withdraw the vote because of his lack of support for Ayuso. Francis, who is Cuban and was coordinator of Vox in Vallecas appointed by Monasterio, says that the budget was unforgivable. "You can imagine my perception. That a daughter of Cubans vote with the communists against the budgets of the Community of Madrid. That is, against the best interest of the people of the community."

Others see that Monasterio's image is incompatible with the right-wing workers he has tried to convince. She has emphasized that strategy, but the results this 28M show her failure. In red areas such as the two districts of Vallecas, Carabanchel, Leganés or Rivas it has not even reached 7% of the vote. "His profile seems indigestible for someone who lives in those neighborhoods because he is not compatible because of his origin and his way of being," says one of the sources close to the party. "It's as if you ask those neighborhoods to vote for Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo."

Contact the author by email fpeinado@elpais.es or Twitter @FernandoPeinado

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