On June 21, the government must pay $2 billion to the International Monetary Fund and must complete payments of $000.1 billion to private bondholders by August.
The Government's expectation is that, as has been happening within the framework of the agreed loan, the agency will advance the money to be able to comply in a timely manner with the maturity or, at its sum, postpone the maturity until the end of the month without incurring in arrears.
The negotiation carried out by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, contemplates the request for the advance of the funds corresponding to the maturities until December (US $ 10,700 million) based on the fact that the drought caused it to lose US $ 20,000 million in exports and that, otherwise, Argentina could not pay. It does not have enough dollars in the reserves of the Central Bank.
In case there was a lack of evidence, the low cost Flybondi announced that it must leave two planes stopped for not being able to access the dollars at the official price necessary to payfor the lease.
The official response was the one that has been given to all private companies that have commitments abroad: enter the Sirase (system of imports and payments abroad) I got a credit to pay and within 90 days the dollars will be enabled at the official price so you can cancel the credit.
The uncertainty of the companies is understandable: in 90 days it will be included June 24, which is the date to register candidates, and August 13 will be the PASO. Will anyone be in a position to forecast with any degree of certainty the price and availability of dollars for the next 90 days?
Sergio Massa insists that he will comply with Cristina Kirchner's precept not to apply an exchange rate jump because doing so in this context of high uncertainty could lead to hyperinflation.
But in the minister coexists his desire to be the presidential candidate of the Frente de Todos demanding that he be anointed by CFK without participating in an internal election.
The sharp jump in inflation and the lack of dollars do not help him and from the kircherismo spokesmen are heard who see him more as a candidate for senator for Buenos Aires than for the presidential.
Massa was heard to say in recent days: "If you want inmates, I park the car and leave," which would mean that he hopes to reach the end of the year as minister with dollars in the reserves of the Central Bank.
As of May 31, gross reserves show a decrease of US $ 11,585 million so far this year and the "net" are negative around US $ 1,000 million.
Already returned from China, Massa and the president of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce, are preparing to use the first 35,000 million yuan equivalent to US $ 5,000 million to pay for imports and intervene in the exchange market by considering that "money is fungible".
The trade deficit with China was US $ 9,500 million so the Government believes it has room to use the yuan intensively to import agrochemicals, cars, parts, motorcycles, etc. and that it will have room to intervene in free dollars.
The use of yuan will try to cover the significant drop that is verified in the liquidations of exports with the end of the "agro dollar 1" that contemplated a dollar of $ 300.
In the calculation of the Capital Foundation, the agricultural dollar "beyond the settlements for US $ 5,119 million, the BCRA only managed to buy 29% (US $ 1,490 million) compared to 74% that it had achieved in the soybean dollar 1 and 65% of the soybean dollar 2 ".
In this context, IMF dollars are particularly important, and doubts persist about whether the IMF staff maintains the request that the government meet the goal of reducing the fiscal deficit and arrange for some exchange rate adjustments.
The exchange rate uncertainty is exacerbated by the escalation of the internal fights between the ruling party and the opposition with an eye on the future of the dollar and the exchange rate trap.
On the side of the opposition there are three distinct positions. Horario Rodriguez Larreta is in favor of a shock plan to balance the variables (dollar, rates, wages, etc.) but defending the peso.
Patricia Bullrich says she would implement a bi-monetary system with free circulation of pesos and dollars. In his view, the dollar would fall from the start because the private ones would increase the supply of foreign currency.
For her, the trap is eliminated once and for all to favor the arrival of dollars.
Javier Milei has already announced that he favors a total dollarization of the economy to the point that he maintains his campaign proposal to eliminate the Central Bank.
The policy of the Frente de Todos, assuming that it continues the guidelines proposed by Vice President Cristina Kirchner, would remain in the controls of prices, exchange and expansion of consumption despite the poor results in terms of inflation and accumulation of reserves.
A brief review of the range of positions is enough to understand the level of financial uncertainty and the strong hedging process against the next 69 days until the PASO.
See also
