A poll that Clarín accessed in the last few hours puts in numbers what politics discusses in words. He explains, with figures, why Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is playing all or nothing to add the governor of Córdoba Juan Schiaretti as an ally for the internal Together for Change. The key fact? 19.2% to 6.1%. This is the difference that Patricia Bullrich would be making to the head of the Buenos Aires Government, in that province, in the face of the presidential PASO of August 13.
The study that measured this scenario was done by CB Consultora Opinión Pública, a firm that was born in Córdoba and today has among its clients, precisely, the governments of Larreta and Schiaretti.
This is a survey of 922 cases, between May 24 and 28, with +/- 3.2% margin of error. Córdoba is the second province with the most voters in the country (about 9% of the total), behind Buenos Aires, and has an extra seasoning: there is a vote for governor on June 25, one day after the closing of lists nationwide.
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This overlapping of dates is what complicates the agreement that the head of government, originally, had proposed for later, perhaps prior to an eventual runoff. Larreta supports Luis Juez for governor of Córdoba, who faces Martín Llaryora, Schiaretti's dolphin.
This opens doubts about the viability of the move of the head of government and opened a huge question in his rivals / detractors: why is Larreta doing this? Out of audacity or desperation? The numbers of Córdoba, if true, pay more for the second hypothesis.
Well Bullrich, bad Larreta and very good Schiaretti
The question asked by the consulting firm led by analyst Cristian Buttié was: "If the elections for president of Argentina were today, and the following candidates will be presented, which one would you vote for?"
In Together for Change, Bullrich is clearly cut first, with 19.2%. He would be capturing a good part of the anti-K vote that characterizes the people of Cordoba. At more than 13 points, with 6.1%, Larreta follows. And the radicals complete Facundo Manes (3.4%) and Gerardo Morales (1.8%). Total space: 30.5%.
Then the other key piece of information appears. One step lower in the total, but as the only candidate of moderate Peronism, comes Schiaretti with 28.9%. He is the single most voted candidate in his province. Is that why Larreta wants him as vice?
Although the team of the head of government assures that they come with an advantage over Bullrich throughout the country, they admit that the fight in the province of Buenos Aires was evenly matched and that in districts like Córdoba, they come down. An alliance with Schiaretti, they boast, can help them win the internal and then the general/runoff. Futurism.
Returning to the survey, it confirms how badly everything that smells Kirchnerism there is doing: between Wado de Pedro and Sergio Massa they do not reach double digits for the PASO. With a curiosity, regarding other studies elsewhere. The Interior Minister appears at the top, with 6.1%, against 2.6% for his economy colleague. Total for Frente de Todos: 8.7%.
Above the ruling party is Javier Milei, with an interesting 21.5%. More relegated completes Myriam Bregman, for the Left Front, with 1.3%, plus 1.6% white, 2.2% do not know, 2% would not vote and 3.5% other.
The numbers for governor
The same study brings a measurement of voting intention for the election for governor of Cordoba on the 25th of this month. And there is a clear advantage for Llaryora, Schiaretti's candidate. It adds 42.% against 29.8% of Judge.
The JxC candidate claims to be fighting more closely. But, if he ends up defeated, it will be difficult to escape the story that Larreta's move harmed him despite the fact that these numbers, prior to the hottest of the debate, already gave him down.
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