When Cristina Kirchner warned at the end of April about the advance of Javier Milei, the vice president not only trusted her political nose or what she sees and hears in the media or the data that her collaborators bring to her. Like all important politicians, the vice president receives periodic surveys. She and her son Maximo, in particular, read the polls prepared by Analogías, a firm historically linked to Kirchnerism and that has been working for La Cámpora and the Instituto Patria for years.
Days ago they accessed the latest report, based on a survey of 2,605 cases throughout the country, interviewed at the end of May. Unlike other Analogies studies that ended up in the press, this one included voting intention numbers. And there a scenario of three is whitewashed, which explains why Frente de Todos, Juntos por el Cambio and the Libertarios coexist between euphoria and horror.
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The conclusion, today, in coincidence with other works of public opinion, is that any of the three can enter or (the worst) stay out of a runoff. Without polarization, the idea of a victory in the first round, as in 2019, does not seem to fit anyone.
What does Analogies say? When asked about this year's presidential election by political space, the ruling party and the main opposition alliance end up statistically tied, separated by less than one point: 27.5% the Frente de Todos and 26.8% Together for Change. One step lower, but not so far, completes Milei's strength, with 21.2%. The undecided are fourth, with 18.2%. The rest is divided between the left (2.7%) and the blank vote (3.6%).
Then, when those election results are filtered by different variables, the Milei phenomenon returns a couple of flashes. Examples? Libertarians rank first among men (28%) and among voters ages 16 to 29 (31%).
That's not talked about
In a conversation with Clarín, an analyst close to Kirchnerism leaves an unoptimistic view of the numbers: "Although the ruling party grows to 35 points, there are another 65 that will go to the opposition. And today, unlike other elections, you have two options to remove Frente de Todos: Together for Change and Milei. It's very difficult to win."
And it provides another even more uncomfortable fact: "The numbers in Province that reach Cristina and Máximo are not as good as some sell. And nobody wants to talk about it. (Axel) Kicillof may be at 35% for PASO, but with the candidates of Juntos close, at 32%, and Milei at 20%. This then becomes polarized and the ruling party has nowhere to get more support. So it's very likely to get lost there too."
The one who speaks is the consultants who, faced with a possible double defeat, believe that Kicillof should make the leap to the presidential election to defend the only vote at hand today: that of the convinced Kirchnerist. "Wado (Pedro's) does not lift and it is very difficult for him to go for president. And how does Massa campaign between August and October if the next day of the PASO the economy becomes complicated as everyone speculates?"
In parallel, doubts remain about the format to settle the internal. The pressure exerted by Cristina and Massa for there to be only one candidate for now did not precipitate a shift by Daniel Scioli. Will the former governor really compete or does he just raise the price to get off? Anyway, it has the approval of Alberto Fernández, who provided it with leaders and in the last hours even a spokesman, although in public it remains dispensable.
Regarding the debate of the official intern, it is worth a return to the numbers. All the polls that measure for the PASO give greater volume to the Frente de Todos when it offers more than one variant. A consultancy that measured for years for Massa put forward several hypotheses with a single applicant. When the candidate was Kicillof, the ruling party did not reach 20 points. De Pedro was directly below 15. Message from the Minister of Economy that if there is only one it should be him?
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