Tens of thousands of people in Ukraine are affected by floods following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. What are the consequences for the Ukraine war?
Kyiv – Flooded places, destroyed grain, endangered drinking water supply: The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine has serious consequences for people and the environment. However, according to a military analyst, the consequences for Ukraine's counteroffensive should be rather small.
The dam break could not push the Ukraine war "in one direction or the other in the short term," said Niklas Masuhr, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the University of ETH in Zurich, the German Press Agency.
For a long time there has been speculation about blowing up the dam
The broken dam is located on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. Since the recapture of the city of Kherson by Ukrainian troops at the end of 2022, the river has formed the front line in the Kherson region of the same name. "It is rather unlikely that Ukraine had planned to cross the Dnipro as a weighty offensive axis," Masuhr said. This is mainly due to the high risks of such a crossing attempt against prepared Russian troops.
There has been speculation for months about a possible blowing up of the dam by Russia. In October, military observers from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported preparations for a possible Russian false flag attack. "The dam burst should not have caused too much shock in the Ukrainian leadership," Masuhr said. "It would be surprising if this had not been part of calculations for the counteroffensives."
Military analyst: Focal points of the counteroffensive can be expected in other regions
According to Masuhr, the focus of the announced Ukrainian counteroffensives is more likely to come from the north in Zaporizhzhia and in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The ISW reported on Thursday of Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut and in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
Because Ukrainian counterattacks on Russian-occupied territory in the southern sector would initially be more difficult due to the floods, Russia could possibly withdraw troops and move them to other critical sectors of the front, Masuhr said. However, the same applies in principle to Ukraine.
Dam blasting: Ukraine and Russia blame each other
It remains unclear who is responsible for the dam burst in Ukraine. Military expert Masuhr said that he, too, could not make an assessment of this at the current state of information. Ukraine, like many international experts, blames Russia for the disaster. Kiev is convinced that Russia blew up the dam in order to hinder the progress of Ukrainian troops in the region. Moscow, on the other hand, claims that Ukraine destroyed the dam by shelling.
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Reservoir had more than eight times the volume of Lake Chiemsee
Before the blasting, the reservoir had a volume of about 18 billion cubic meters of water. This corresponds to more than eight times the volume of Lake Chiemsee. The water of the reservoir is of great importance for agriculture and drinking water supply in the region. The cooling of the nearby Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is also fed by Lake Kakhovka. (with material from dpa and AFP)