Status: 21/09/2023, 16:38 p.m.
By: Christian Deutschländer
Hubert Aiwanger is enjoying his high in the polls - he also no longer rules out the jump to Berlin. In the CSU, some are grinding their teeth.
Munich – Hubert Aiwanger's latest video is 23 seconds long and quite easy to understand. After his beer tent speech near Altötting, the Free Voters boss had an employee film how the audience stands up and claps rhythmically. No text, just applause and enthusiastic whistles, that's how Aiwanger put it on the Internet. Subtext: Look at it all, it's going great for me.
Aiwanger's poll high continues ahead of the Bavarian election
The high of Lower Bavaria continues a good two weeks before the state election. In the tents, in the polls of almost stable 17 percent, and in the media. In a series of interviews, Aiwanger is currently confidently presenting his messages and feeding the accusation that the affair over leaflets and alleged Hitler salutes at school was a campaign against him. "The story is annoying people now, what was at the school almost 40 years ago," he says.
Now Aiwanger is also clearly formulating what he plans to do after the election. He told the PNP that he wanted to "become Minister of Economic Affairs again" in Bavaria. In 2025, in the Bundestag election, he will then consider switching to federal politics. "If I can do more for Bavaria in Berlin than from Munich, I would also go to Berlin." He wants a "bourgeois coalition" with the CDU/CSU and the FDP.
Aiwanger in Berlin? CSU still has no consensus - silence despite partly impotent anger
In 2017 and 2021, Aiwanger was the party's top candidate. It would be wrong to smile about his results (1.0 / 2.4 percent). More important was the leap over the hurdle to party financing, in which the Free Voters participate strongly. This makes it possible to set up many regional associations. In Rhineland-Palatinate, Brandenburg and Hesse, among others, the party achieved remarkable results. In 2025, the leap into the Bundestag is not excluded. Insa currently sees 3.5 percent.
There is no consensus in the CSU leadership as to whether one could imagine governing with Aiwanger in Berlin. Many Christian Socialists in state politics are driven by impotent anger at their coalition partner. Aiwanger is also using his soaring popularity to attack the CSU, which tied itself to him as a partner months ago.
Those who consider him to be a very bad Minister of Economic Affairs do not dare to say that; they would crush their own government. However, it is noted exactly how German top managers obviously avoid Aiwanger, including staying away from his reception at the IAA auto show.
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Only a coup with the Free Voters can be dangerous for Aiwanger - which is not in sight
The hope of bowling the FW boss out of the cabinet after the election is low. In a coalition, each partner decides independently with whom to fill its ministries. They will negotiate as toughly as possible, it says defiantly from the CSU. It is conceivable that Markus Söder (or, in the event of a bad result, a successor) will demonstratively explore with the SPD and the Greens after the election. But here, too, the mood of the Bavarians is clear: the majority does not want any other coalition. And for a two-party alliance with the FDP, if it does get in, the numbers are far from enough. So continue to be bourgeois with FW – even if the mood is likely to become rougher.
What could be dangerous for Aiwanger is only a coup by the Free Voters. That is not in sight – the soaring polls are raising the mood and the prospect that a fourth ministerial post and some state secretary in Bavaria are to be distributed.