The growth of SarsCov2 virus positives slows down at the national level, while an increasing trend in the incidence is observed in four clusters of contiguous provinces. In all the remaining provinces, the incidence is stagnating or decreasing. This is indicated by the analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Computing Applications 'M. Picone', of the National Research Council.
The first cluster of contiguous provinces includes Pordenone and Venice; the second Bergamo, Como, Lecco, Milan, Monza, Asti, Biella, Cuneo, Novara, Turin, Vercelli, Aosta; the third Reggio Emilia, Ferrara, Massa Carrara, Lucca, Prato, Pistoia, Pisa, Arezzo, Florence, Livorno, Grosseto, Viterbo, Rieti, Teramo, Pesaro Urbino, Rome, Frosinone, Caserta; the fourth Brindisi and Taranto, with the provinces of Potenza and Foggia, isolated, but close to the first two.
Of the seven Veneto provinces, five are in the top 12 by incidence, as shown by the data relating to the period between 21 and 27 September. Considering the data of all Italian provinces, the highest incidence is recorded in Padua (110 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants), Rome (105) and Salerno (100).
Lodi, Venice and Pavia follow (95); Belluno, Mantua, Rovigo, Brescia, Vicenza, Naples and Latina (90); Verona, Caserta and Milan (85), Ferrara, Treviso, Avellino and Turin (80); Lecco, Monza and Brianza, Asti, Perugia, Aosta and Cagliari (75); Pistoia, Pisa, Como, Cremona, Chieti and Rimini (70); Pordenone, Biella, Arezzo, Terni and Teramo (65); Frosinone, Rieti, Trieste, Ravenna, Bergamo, Cuneo, Lucca, Novara, Florence and Massa Carrara (60); Catanzaro, Varese, Livorno, Prato, Vercelli, La Spezia, Reggio Emilia, Udine, Sondrio and Ancona (55); L'Aquila, Bologna, Benevento, Piacenza, Genoa, Alessandria, Bari and Siena (50); Savona, Pesaro and Urbino, Taranto, Gorizia, Trento, Cosenza, Verbano-Cusio-Ossola, Grosseto, Pescara and Oristano (45); Reggio Calabria, Forlì-Cesena, Brindisi, Foggia and Imperia (40); Sassari, Bolzano, Lecce, Modena, Parma, Barletta-Andria-Trani, Macerata and Nuoro (35); Viterbo, Ascoli Piceno, Fermo and Campobasso (30); South Sardinia and Isernia (20); Potenza (15), Matera and Vibo Valentia (10); Trapani, Caltanissetta, Catania, Palermo, Crotone, Messina and Ragusa (5); Enna, Syracuse and Agrigento (1).
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