Status: 02.10.2023, 09:08 a.m.
By: Franziska Schwarz
In tribute to the mercenaries: a tank with a Wagner flag in the Russian-occupied part of Donetsk © STRINGER/AFP
The course of the front in the south remains unstable. The Wagner return preoccupies military analysts. The news ticker on the Ukraine war.
- Ukraine's counteroffensive: situation "complex" for Volodymyr Zelensky's troops in Robotyne
- Future of the Wagner mercenaries: Negotiations with Vladimir Putin's circle probably decisive
- Battle for the Black Sea: Russian military relies on naval aviation
- The information processed here comes from international media and news agencies, but also from the warring parties Russia, Ukraine and their allies. In particular, the information on losses of the armies involved in the Ukraine war cannot be independently verified.
Kyiv – According to intelligence findings, Wagner mercenaries are fighting again in Bakhmut. The private army has been considered leaderless since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Andrei Troshev, himself a former commander, is expected to become the new head of the Wagner mercenaries.
Just a month ago, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assumed general chaos within the Wagner command ranks. Now the military specialists again commented on Wagner, in connection with the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Front course of the counteroffensive in Robotyne dynamic
In particular, the course of the front south of Robotyne is "unstable, tactically complex and dynamic," writes the ISW in its analysis of 1 October. Important fortifications repeatedly changed hands. Robotyne is located in the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine. Could the Wagner mercenaries help the Russian aggressors here again?
Wagner's future depends on negotiations with Putin's squad
The ISW does not want to comment clearly on the status of the Wagner Group at the moment. The institute does not rule out the possibility that the mercenary units will once again play a role in the Ukraine war as an "effective military organization". Their future, however, now depends on negotiations on future cooperation with the Russian government.
Specifically: "If they are successfully restored as a large unified organization under the leadership of the Russian Guard, the Russian Ministry of Defense or similar authorities," the situation report says.
Russia relies on naval aviation, according to British intelligence
Meanwhile, Russian naval aviation is becoming increasingly important for the course of the front. Russia is using them – also in the face of Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea Fleet – in an attempt to control the northwest of the Black Sea. This was announced by the British Ministry of Defense.
The main task is probably the early identification of drone boats, with which Ukraine had recently repeatedly attacked Russian ships. (with news agency material)