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Record-hot winter predicted, El Niño to blame - Terra e Poli

2023-12-04T08:56:24.989Z

Highlights: Record-hot winter predicted, El Niño to blame - Terra e Poli. After a summer and autumn marked by extreme temperatures, the winter of 2023/24 also promises to reach record heat. The culprit is El Niño, the periodic weather phenomenon generally associated with rising temperatures, which returned to settle in the Pacific Ocean in the second half of this year. El Niño is poised to trigger anomalous anticyclones (areas of high atmospheric pressure) which will affect winter weather especially in East Asia and North America.


After a summer and autumn marked by extreme temperatures, the winter of 2023/24 also promises to reach record heat: the culprit is El Niño, the periodic weather phenomenon generally associated with rising temperatures, which returned to settle in the Pacific Ocean in the second half of this year. (ANSA)


After a summer and autumn marked by extreme temperatures, the winter of 2023/24 also promises to reach record heat: the culprit is El Niño, the periodic weather phenomenon generally associated with rising temperatures, which returned to settle in the Pacific Ocean in the second half of this year. According to a study by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, El Niño is poised to trigger anomalous anticyclones (areas of high atmospheric pressure) in the Pacific Northwest, which will affect winter weather especially in East Asia and North America.


"Usually in the rest of the world the effects of El Niño are more diluted, because other disturbing factors also come into play," Claudio Tei, a climatologist at the National Research Council's Environmental Monitoring and Modeling Laboratory, told ANSA. "For Europe and Italy, therefore, there will be no major consequences - adds Tei - except for slightly lower temperatures for Northern Europe and a greater persistence of anticyclones. Overall, however, the winter is likely to be a bit warmer than average in Europe and the Mediterranean as well."


On the other hand, 2023 has already been certified as the hottest year ever: this has just been revealed by the World Meteorological Organization's provisional report on the state of the climate, pointing out that it is the first to have recorded a temperature increase of 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels. "2023 has broken all climate records," the report reads, "accompanied by extreme weather phenomena that have left a trail of devastation and despair." As indicated by the European Space Agency and the European Commission's Copernicus Earth observation programme, the average temperature of the surface of the oceans reached 20.79 degrees, the highest recorded so far and 0.4 degrees above the average for the period. A new record that adds to that of November 17, the first day on which the global temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 2 degrees. In Italy, among other things, some weather stations in Sicily have detected peaks of as much as 30 degrees in the middle of the month.


To understand whether this trend will continue for the winter, the researchers led by Fei Zheng "used models that start from the conditions recorded in summer and autumn - explains the researcher Lamma-Cnr - to try to predict the climate of the coming months". The findings underscore that the effects of El Niño will be amplified by the combination with ongoing global warming. Regions in the lower mid-latitudes of Asia and the Americas will experience an exceptionally warm winter, with a 95% chance that the global average surface temperature for the 2023/24 season will set a new all-time record.



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Source: ansa

All news articles on 2023-12-04

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