The adoption of this motion of prior rejection on Monday would lead to the immediate withdrawal of the immigration bill in the National Assembly. But it would not necessarily mean the end of his parliamentary career.
The motion of prior rejection rightly worries Macron's troops. Its adoption would result in the immediate rejection of the immigration bill in the Assembly. This would mean that the debates would be over before they had even begun.
The government would then have three options:The first is to let the text continue its parliamentary journey. A second reading would therefore take place in the Senate on the bill as it was when it was released... of the Senate, since the text voted in the Law Committee of the Assembly would have been swept away in the public session. The senators could then rework the reform before voting on it, and for it to return once again to the Palais Bourbon.The second possibility for the executive is to convene a joint committee of seven senators and seven deputies who could then work on a new version of the text between the one voted in the Senate and... a blank page, since the Assembly would then have been unable to debate or vote on anything. But the right and the centre would be in the majority in this body, which would give them the possibility of amending the text as they wish, with the possible help of the National Rally, which could push several measures.Third option: the government declares that it does not have a majority in the National Assembly to pass this bill and therefore decides to withdraw it.
But for the time being, the motion to reject is still far from being adopted: for this to happen, the Greens would have to manage to mobilise a relative majority of 'in favour'. And the task promises to be difficult, to say the least. But not impossible.