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2024: when half the world goes to the polls

2024-01-29T19:09:35.629Z

Highlights: 2024: when half the world goes to the polls. There is a growing interaction between electoral processes and geopolitical conflicts that has been increasing in the last two years. On January 13, the presidential election took place in Taiwan, the most relevant point of friction between Washington and Beijing. The Venezuelan presidential election, which will be in October, is beginning to have a certain impact on global geopolitical conflicts. But the Venezuelan president is running for a new quarter of a century, when the Chavista regime turns a new direction.


There is a growing interaction between electoral processes and geopolitical conflicts that has been increasing in the last two years.


At a time when there is some skepticism about the functioning of democracy in the world, elections are taking place in 2024 in which half of the world's population participates.

Regardless of how much democracy in the world regresses or not, or the ideological changes that are taking place, there is a growing interaction between electoral processes and geopolitical conflicts that has been increasing in the last two years.

On January 13, the presidential election took place in Taiwan, the most relevant point of friction between Washington and Beijing.

The ruling party prevailed and the current vice president was elected.

After doing so, he ratified the priority in the alliance with the United States.

But his victory was with 40%, a percentage that allows ambivalent readings.

The Chinese president, for his part, responded by saying that he will never allow the island's independence.

At the same time, the presidential election in Indonesia will be held on February 14.

It is the third electorate in the world after India and the United States, which is also the Muslim country with the largest population and where it is being demonstrated that there is no existential incompatibility between Islam and democracy.

This happens when fifty Islamic countries are shaken by the Gaza war.

For constitutional reasons, President Widodo cannot run for a third term and the succession is in dispute between the former governor of Jakarta (the country's capital), the current Minister of Defense and the governor of Central Java.

On March 17, the presidential election will be held in Russia.

Putin's reelection is discounted by a wide margin and this will allow him to continue with his strategy of benefiting from the prolongation of the conflict with Ukraine.

Perhaps the question is whether second place will go to the ultranationalist factions that criticize the Russian leader for his lack of results in the war, or the liberal ones, whose leader, Aleksei Navalny, is detained in severe conditions.

Ukraine had its presidential election scheduled for the last Sunday of March, but it was suspended in the first days of January due to martial law being in force.

If it had been carried out, it would not have been easy for President Volodomir Zelensky, at a time when an expansion of conscription is resisted by the population, two years into the war.

On April 10, the parliamentary election will take place in South Korea.

An official victory would strengthen the alliance with the United States, in the same line as what happened in Taiwan.

A victory for the more progressive opposition would mark a more cautious attitude in the face of the growing military threat posed by North Korea, which is increasingly important as a weapons supplier to Russia.

Between April and May, the general election is held in India, the largest electorate in the world (more than seven hundred million people vote in the country).

Prime Minister Modi, a leader representing Hindu nationalism, is in his third term, which he is sure to win.

This country, which has exceeded one billion four hundred million inhabitants, has a key geopolitical position vis-à-vis China and maintains an equidistant position in the global struggle.

Moving to the West, the election for the European Parliament will take place from June 6 to 9, at a time when united Europe is involved in supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia.

Politically-ideologically, the central question is how much the nationalist parties (also called sovereigntists) grow or do not grow.

They would be the third force and would break the balance of moderation between social democrats and Christian democrats that has characterized this parliament.

This would lead to a weaker Europe in terms of its foreign policy and a European Union with more limitations, since the sovereignists do not express themselves firmly committed to it.

It would not be good news for Ukraine.

Also in the middle of the year, the United Kingdom, a firm ally of Washington in global conflicts, holds its parliamentary election.

Labor leads the polls by a wide margin, but the novelty is that the nationalist Nigel Farage has reappeared as an option, attracting the vote of the extreme right, although the conservatives have already turned in this direction.

But the most relevant election in geopolitical terms that will take place this year will be the United States presidential election, scheduled for November 5.

The Republican primaries that began in Iowa on January 14 confirmed that Donald Trump's candidacy is the one that has, by far, the best chance of succeeding within the party.

If he won it would be bad news for Ukraine and good news for Israel.

For China, a Trump victory may be ambiguous and for the future of NATO it will not be good.

Latin America is a region far from global geopolitical conflicts.

But the Venezuelan presidential election, which will be in October, is beginning to have a certain geopolitical impact.

President Nicolás Maduro is running for a new re-election, when the Chavista regime turns a quarter century old.

On December 3, 2023, a referendum was held in this country, which ratified the desire for sovereignty over the Essequibo region, which is two-thirds of the territory of Guyana, a country that is enjoying a great oil boom and whose population does not reach million inhabitants.

Since July, the US has given military signals of support to Guyana and Venezuela is a regional ally of Russia and Iran.

In short, the elections that have begun this year will not only be measured in ideological and political terms, but also geopolitical ones: their impact will be global.

Source: clarin

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