Among the technicians who assist Governor Axel Kicillof, they are still not clear about
the real impact that
the cut that Javier Milei plans to apply in the distribution of discretionary funds to the Provinces will have on the Buenos Aires coffers.
It is known that these items are the adjustment variant to replace the tax block that was left out of the Omnibus Law.
But the dimension of the blow to the Buenos Aires accounts is not clear.
“Before stating our position we have to look at the details.
For now it's just an announcement.
We have no details
.
Nor do we know if the intention is to ignore the tax agreements that are in force,” a Kicillof collaborator told
Clarín.
The district governed by Kicillof
benefited the most in the distribution of resources outside of co-participation in 2023
.
According to data published by the Ministry of Economy, it received 42% of these items.
There were just over
791 billion pesos in one year
that entered the provincial treasury, plus 122 thousand assigned directly to the municipalities.
Within this enormous volume of money, there are items that cannot be modified by decree or ministerial resolution: Fiscal Strengthening Fund (242 billion were sent) or the Teacher Incentive Fund (107 billion annually).
They have the support of a law or a prior agreement, such as the case of the fiscal agreement that Mauricio Macri signed in 2017 with all the provinces.
But there are other shipments that are left to the discretion of national authorities.
And those are the ones that Milei and Minister Luis Caputo could appeal to achieve the zero deficit that they propose as a goal for the organization of the economy in 2024.
That route had an obstacle and a change of route.
Because the Government had to give in to pressure from dialogue-oriented sectors of the opposition and the governors: it left the tax chapter of the “mega law” out of the discussion in exchange for key votes to move the project forward in Congress.
Without the possibility of having new tax tools to improve collection, the option is to amputate expenses and one of the lines is that of discretionary resources that are sent to provincial jurisdictions.
How much did Buenos Aires receive from that money with a single signature during Alberto Fernández's administration?
According to the calculations made in the provincial Legislature,
it would be $400 billion
.
They arrived as part of the National Treasury Contributions (ATN);
Financial Assistance to the Provinces, Financing of the Deficit of the Social Security Fund and other areas of the public works area.
“
Not a single peso will come from this in 2024
,” is the speculation of an economic advisor who knows the design of the income and expenditure of the provincial coffers.
In a Budget that in 2023 ended up close to 9 billion pesos (executed) and that will be the basis of the one that will be applied this year (because a new law was not presented, the same as in the Nation) that number represents almost 5% of total resources.
The fiscal year that ended on December 31, showed a deficit of almost 500 billion pesos.
“Today, between that difference in income and the 400 billion that are not going to come in, Kicillof
would have a fiscal redundancy of almost 1 trillion pesos
,” they explained in La Plata.
In other words, they would represent the resources that the province requires to pay
two months of the salary of public administration agents
.
Buenos Aires has almost 600 thousand state employees (with teachers, police, health and administrative staff in general).
Data provided by the opposition reveals that there would be 100,000 more than four years ago.
Faced with this restrictive scenario, the governor would have two options that are not on his roadmap for now: reduce expenses or drastically reduce the number of public employees.
The reluctance to adopt these solutions is part of the differentiation process with the national management that Kicillof adopted since the libertarian government began.
However, I would be willing to partially accompany the adjustments in public services.
The application of increases in electricity, gas, transportation and toll rates administered by the province has been decided.
Although they would be a lower percentage than projected by the concessionaires that have a contract with the Nation.
It would be another point of differentiation with the Casa Rosada.