The Government of Nicolás Maduro has definitively closed the way for María Corina Machado's participation in the presidential elections scheduled for this year.
The veteran politician, who swept the Venezuelan opposition primaries held in October, is disqualified for omitting food vouchers in a declaration of assets dating back to 2015. Chavismo used this alleged irregularity to eliminate her from the electoral race and the Friday the Supreme Court, which is
de facto
the judicial arm of the Executive, confirmed his disqualification.
The decision also occurs in a climate of maximum tension: last week the authorities arrested more than 30 people accused of alleged conspiracy to assassinate Maduro and began a purge in the Army.
The sentence does not come as a surprise as it is a ruse already applied in the past to leaders critical of the Government, but it disrupts the agreements recently reached between Chavismo and the opposition, such as that of Barbados.
And most worryingly, it complicates the horizon of elections with guarantees.
Machado has a conservative ideological affiliation, but he had managed to attract the support of the majority of the opponents, something not so common in a coalition - now called the Unitary Platform - that is very diverse and with deep political and strategic differences.
Their exclusion from the electoral process not only leaves anti-Chavista parties orphaned, but also anticipates more than likely internal tensions.
There will be a sector that is suspicious of the possibility of participating in the race, another that is more open and a third that will reject it without nuance.
At the same time, there is no clear replacement for Machado, although the name of Manuel Rosales, governor of Zulia (the most populous state in Venezuela), president of the center-left Un Nuevo Tiempo and former opponent of Hugo Chávez in the elections, is already circulating. presidential elections of 2006. In any case, it will be very difficult for the opposition to achieve the consensus and momentum of the disqualified candidate, who was leading all the independent polls.
With these premises, there are at least two other crucial factors.
First, it remains to be seen how international observation and EU participation takes shape.
And second, we must consider the medium-term reaction of the United States, which gave a respite to the serious economic crisis of the Caribbean country with the lifting of some sanctions.
After Machado's disqualification, he is already studying imposing them again.
But if this current devilish situation demonstrates anything, it is that, for the minimum conditions for a change to be met, Maduro has to be willing to modify his authoritarian way of operating.
Chavismo maintains control of the institutions, without counterpowers, and that is its main asset against its adversaries.
Everything else, including holding elections, is a game won in advance.