Morena's candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, remains in the lead in the race for the presidency in Mexico.
The former head of Government of Mexico City maintains a margin of two to one against Xóchitl Gálvez, the candidate of the opposition front, according to the latest Enkoll survey for EL PAÍS and W Radio.
The measurement represents an exit photograph at the close of the pre-campaigns, which concluded on January 18, and considers for the first time Jorge Álvarez Máynez as the standard bearer of the Citizen Movement (MC).
Both leaders have managed to capitalize on the little knowledge of the orange party candidate and have grown in preferences towards the elections on June 2, according to the results of the demographic study.
Voting intention
Enkoll gives Sheinbaum 54% of the gross preferences, compared to the 27% obtained by Gálvez.
Álvarez Máynez has 3%.
The effective preferences, which do not consider those who remain undecided or those who would not vote for any of the candidates, offer similar results: the Morena candidate drops to 65%, the opposition front's standard bearer grows to 32% and the contender for MC it remains at 3%.
Enkoll
The results of this delivery, based on 834 housing surveys carried out between January 19 and 22, reflect an improvement for the official candidate and the candidate of the coalition made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI ) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
The latest Enkoll survey, for the October and November period, gave Sheinbaum 49% and Gálvez 23% of the gross preferences.
The most drastic change was at the expense of Movimiento Ciudadano: two months ago, 17% said they were going to vote for Samuel García and now, only 3% said they would vote for Álvarez Máynez.
The emergence of the new candidate, revealed by García on January 9, also translated into an increase in undecided voters who would not vote for any of the candidates.
From November to January, those who answered that they do not know who they are going to vote for went from 6% to 9% and those who answered “none” went from 5% to 7%, according to Enkoll.
Knowledge
The longest pre-campaigns in recent history in Mexico allowed Gálvez to make himself known among the population.
In July 2023, only 33% of those surveyed knew who the then PAN senator was.
A year later, the story is different.
74% of voters know the current candidate of the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition.
The problem with her campaign is that she has not been able to translate that huge leap in knowledge into positive opinions.
Currently, 37% of those who know her rate her positively, but 35% rate her negatively, according to the survey.
Six months ago, she was identified less, but she had a better image, with 42% positive.
Enkoll
Sheinbaum remains the best-known contender: eight out of ten Mexicans know who she is.
Despite being the candidate who has been in the race the longest, she also maintains the best balance between negative and positive opinions: 65% of her have a good image of her and 17% reject her, according to Enkoll.
Álvarez Máynez, who was only in the pre-campaign for a week, is at a disadvantage compared to his rivals, who have been in the media spotlight for months.
78% of those surveyed do not know it.
“The new one” faces the challenge of telling voters who he is and why they should vote for him in the campaigns, which formally begin in March.
The former MC deputy has 31% positive opinions and the same percentage of negative evaluations among the 22% of citizens who do know him, according to the measurement.
Regarding rejection, 40% of those surveyed said they would “never” vote for Galvez, 28% reject Álvarez Máynez and 11% reject Sheinbaum, if raw preferences are taken into account.
Party preferences
Enkoll
When respondents are asked which party they would vote for, regardless of the candidates, Morena appears as the best positioned among gross preferences.
48% said that they prefer the political movement of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
The ruling bloc has a wide advantage, but repeats the results it obtained in the November survey and fails to exceed percentages of 50%, which it did have in a good stretch of last year: from May to October 2023. Its allies are further behind : 3% would vote for the Green Party and 2% for the Labor Party.
The front parties are close to 30%: the PAN is the opposition force with the highest voting intention, with 16%;
11% opt for the PRI, and 2% for the PRD.
3% responded that they are going to choose MC, according to gross preferences.
8% of voters said none, a higher percentage than four of the seven registered political parties.
When effective preferences are analyzed, MC appears as the fourth force, below Morenistas, PANistas and PRIistas.
Enkoll
The traditional parties concentrate the greatest rejection.
47% of those surveyed said they would never vote for the PRI and 17% reject the PAN.
During the pre-campaign, the institute led by Alejandro
Alito
Moreno opted to improve the partisan image under the slogan “we are not perfect, but we know how to govern.”
The number of PRI voters grew two points compared to November, but the percentage of rejection remained the same, according to the survey.
Morena completes the rejection podium with 9% in raw numbers.
In this installment, however, Enkoll asked respondents what they think is better: for the party in power to remain in power or for another to arrive.
63% prefer continuity, 31% look for a change and 6% are indifferent.
The undecided
Will this election be defined by the convinced or the undecided?
In this survey, people were also asked if they are already completely sure which party or candidate they are going to vote for or if they still don't know for sure.
71% of those surveyed say they have already decided, while 26% believe it could change between now and election day.
3% do not know or do not answer.
These results represent similar percentages compared to those of two months ago.
69% said they were sure who they were going to vote for and 29% believed they would still change their mind.
The rest didn't know.
It must also be considered that the percentage of those who answered that they did not know who to vote for grew in the January measurement, going from 6% to 9%.
Those who answered none went from 5% to 7%.
How much does ideology weigh in this decision?
Among the 32% of respondents who identify as left-wing or center-left voters, Sheinbaum has 67% of the votes, while Gálvez takes 21%.
Álvarez Máynez keeps 3% of the gross preferences.
Among the 35% who consider themselves to be right or center-right, the margins are narrowing: 48% go for the official candidate and 38% for the opposition standard-bearer.
The former head of Government also leads among those who do not have a defined ideology, 33% of the participants: 50% go with the Morenista and 19% with the former senator for the PAN.
Seven out of ten participants stated that it is “very likely” that they will vote, 15% answered “somewhat likely,” 9% responded “unlikely” and 4% acknowledged that it was “not at all likely.”
The 2018 presidential elections recorded a turnout of 63.4%, according to official figures.
In the survey, 41% of the participants admitted that they did not know the exact date of the elections, 18% answered that they were going to be "this year", 27% answered "in June" and 14%, "2 of June".
Regarding the country's main problem, the survey gave participants three options: 52% said insecurity, 30% said corruption and 18% said economic difficulties.
The sample was made up of 48% men and 52% women, and estimates a margin of error of 3.46% with a confidence level of 95%.
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