The coincidence of the surveys in which the sharp rise in prices and the adjustment in general is affecting the image of Javier Milei is almost total.
But the
new study
by
Zuban Córdoba
that Clarín
advances
this Monday has a particular, strong warning, which is linked to an
error
that analysts also attribute to
Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández
: overestimating
people's
support and their
tolerance for bad times. news
.
But in addition, this new
national elevation
prepares a
ranking with the images of the main leaders and officials
, pro-government and opposition members, where an
unexpected winner
appears : Governor
Axel Kicillof
, the same one who has been highly questioned due to insecurity in the province he governs. and for his in-person participation in the CGT event last Wednesday.
Zuban Córdoba
is the union of two firms specialized in public opinion.
The first, by
Paola Zuban
, more related to consumption and business;
the second, by political analyst
Gustavo Córdoba
.
Between January 25 and 26 (last Thursday and Friday) they conducted a national survey, with
1,500 interviews throughout the country
, and presented the results with +/- 2.53% margin of error.
Precarious consensus
It is interesting how at the beginning of the report (27 pages in total), the results are analyzed with a
warning for Milei
.
She says like this:
"Both during the government of
Alberto Fernández
and that of
Mauricio Macri
we noticed on numerous occasions the existence of
'precarious consensus'
. That is, processes of
social acceptance on efforts
in general or on measures in particular that tend to be
ephemeral and limited
in time.
time".
"However, governments always act as if these consensuses were eternal or permanent and abuse them until they wear them out, generating aggravated processes of collapse of public trust or credibility, which then end up seriously affecting the rest of their mandates."
"In the
previous government
, in just months they went
from a positive image to around 80% at the beginning of their periods of negativity
, marked by specific events such as the photo of the Olivos party and the attempted intervention in Vicentin.
They never recovered
".
"The existence of precarious consensus, we understand, is now the rule and not the exception in the governance system in Argentina.
Governments quickly assume and consume the initial political capital
. Giving rise to stages of authentic political agony, where everything is done more difficult and uphill.
The image of the Government and inheritance
When the report begins to break down the acceptance numbers for the current government, the new polarization that Clarín warned about days ago is confirmed: people who support a lot and people who also strongly reject the new libertarian management.
In general, the balance of the volumes of both groups is negative for the ruling party.
In Zuban Córdoba
's numbers
,
36.2% fully approve
of the national government against
52.8%
who
disapprove with the same intensity
.
Moderate outside.
v1.7 0421
Government approval and economic expectations
Based on a national survey of 1,500 cases
Source:
Zuban Córdoba
Infographic:
Clarín
A similar division appears when asking about the
direction of the country
:
42.3%
believe it is going in the
"right direction"
and
54.4%
think
the opposite
.
Also with the country's
economic expectations
there is a strong division:
33.2% are optimistic and 44.3% are pessimistic
.
In favor of Milei, and as other studies also reflect, responsibility for the current (bad) situation is attributed more to the previous Fernández government than to the one that took office a month and a half ago: 45.9% against 39.1%. 14.8% point to both equally.
In any case, those who blame the libertarian administration are a large number, taking into account the short time it has been in power.
Will a political and ideological issue influence it or did the 25.5% inflation in December hit hard?
Maybe there is a little of everything.
Kicillof the one with the best image?
A fact that also
draws attention is how the
ranking of images
of the main leaders of the ruling party and the opposition
is formed .
In most studies, government officials lead the table and Peronists/Kirchnerists finish below.
But in Zuban Córdoba
's numbers
- in which all those evaluated are left with a differential against image -,
the one with the best support/rejection ratio is Kicillof
.
They attribute
45.5% positive and 53% negative
to the governor .
They beat by nothing the
two women in the Government
who usually measure well: the vice
Victoria Villarruel (+ 45.4% and - 53.1%)
, and the minister
Patricia Bullrich (+ 44.4% and - 55.3% )
.
Two male officials
also remain at that level
: President
Milei (+ 44.3% and - 55.2%)
, and spokesperson
Manuel Adorni (+ 41.5% and - 50.3%)
.
Then, further away, they complete:
Cristina Kirchner
:
+ 40.5%
and - 59.1%.
Mauricio Macri
:
+ 35.7%
and - 63.4%.
Karina Milei
:
+ 35.3%
and - 48%.
Luis Caputo
:
+ 35.2%
and - 57.4%.
Martín Menem
:
+ 34.3%
and - 43.5%.
Federico Sturzenegger
:
+ 29.1%
and - 53.9%.