Towards the end of his term and the US presidential elections, which are planned to be held in November 2024, in which Biden will try to be elected for a second term, it is clear that his policy towards Iran has failed. The mainstay of Biden's policy, which he already announced in his election campaign, was a return to the nuclear agreement with Iran. He is courting Khamenei, and is exhibiting a rather soft policy towards Tehran, in order to promote a return to the agreement.
As part of its soft policy, the Biden administration did not raise the military option at all, despite the significant progress in Iran's nuclear program.
In its framework, it establishes itself as a nuclear threshold state.
This entrenchment was evident in an IAEA report from December 2023, according to which Tehran has accumulated enough uranium to an advanced enrichment level of 60%, which would be enough for three nuclear bombs.
President of Iran Raisi, photo: E.P
Moreover, according to David Albright, one of the most senior nuclear arms control researchers in the world, as part of the jump in its nuclear program, Iran will be able to produce enough enriched material for its first nuclear bomb in a week, and in five months it will be able to produce enough fissile material for a dozen nuclear bombs.
Accordingly, IAEA Director General Grossi warned in the middle of last January that Iran is "rushing forward" with its uranium enrichment program, and continues to put up barriers to inspection.
The US has been careful not to attack Iran, even though it has routinely carried out its proxies in Iraq to carry out 159 attacks, as of January 29, against American bases and interests in Iraq and Syria since the outbreak of the Iron Swords War. Iranian policy is aimed at pressuring the US to push Israel to stop the war
Even after advocating that Hezbollah, the spearhead of the Iranian terrorist organization in Iraq, killed three American soldiers in a UAV attack at an American outpost in Jordan last night, January 28, 2024.
American soldiers in Iraq (archive), photo: AFP
The Biden administration appears to be sticking to its policy of not holding Iran accountable for its responsibility for this.
Under Biden, the US is doing everything in its power not to break ties with Khamenei, and to appease him through the guise of generous concessions as part of vigorous courtship.
The American courtship
The Biden administration promoted a series of measures that undermined the vigorous American courtship of Khamenei, designed to restore trust between him and the US, which was severely damaged following Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in May 2018.
First, the Biden administration held a prisoner deal in September 2023 under which Iran released five American citizens it detained on its territory under various pretexts, as part of its blackmail policy.
In return, Washington released five Iranian citizens who were arrested in the US after they smuggled sensitive technologies to Iran that could help its missile and nuclear program. As part of the deal, six billion dollars of Iran's frozen assets from oil sales were deposited in Qatar Bank, and are restricted to use for civilian procurement only.
Alongside this, as part of the withdrawal from the maximum pressure campaign, the Biden administration is not fully enforcing the sanctions.
This policy has allowed Tehran to rake in $80 billion worth of profit (current as of October 10, 2023) from illegal oil sales since Biden took office.
Iranian missile test, photo: AP
Second, on January 25 it was also revealed that the Biden administration warned Iran against the intention of the Afghan branch of ISIS (Islamic State - Khorasan Province), to carry out an attack in the area of the grave of Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Kerman on January 3, the fourth anniversary of his assassination.
U.S. officials said the information passed on to Iranian officials was "specific enough in terms of location and timing" that it could have helped Tehran thwart the attack or at least reduce the death toll.
Tehran could have prevented the deadly inferno attack in which 95 people were killed, but for some reason (perhaps the lack of trust in the US) it did not use the critical information it received.
Third, during the reciprocal attacks carried out by the US in recent weeks against the Houthis in Yemen and against the Hezbollah group in Iraq, it was careful not to damage the assets or elements of the Quds Force, despite their senior role in promoting the attacks against the US.
Iran's significant involvement in the Houthi attacks was highlighted even more strongly in recently published revelations.
In this context, it was revealed that commanders and advisers of the Israeli Air Force, including instructors in the fields of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, are present on Yemeni soil, and provide various assistance, including tactical intelligence to the Houthis, for the benefit of their attacks.
Since October 7, the Quds Force will increase shipments of anti-aircraft missiles to Yemen, which include attack drones, various cruise missiles, including anti-ship cruise missiles, and medium-range ballistic missiles, which the Houthis used in their attacks in the Red Sea.
At the same time, it was revealed that Hezbollah also maintains a presence in Yemen as part of the assistance to the Houthis.
The Israel Defense Forces' intelligence ship, BEHSHAD, which has been in the Red Sea since 2021, plays a special role in Iranian aid, helping the Houthis direct their attacks and providing intelligence that identifies which of the ships passing through the Red Sea are making their way to Israel. The Iranian ship is on the move, and accompanies the attacked ships to make sure Although its location is known and published in the media, the Biden administration has been careful not to include it in the attacks it has carried out so far in Yemen, as well as the Quds Force and Hezbollah elements in Yemen.
Moreover, the Biden administration ignored the severe repression exercised by the Islamic regime against the Iranian people's demand for freedom expressed in the Mahasa Amini protest (September 2022-March 2023), and settled for punishment in the form of sanctions against individuals and organizations in Iran that participated in the regime's repression.
Thus, the administration demonstrated adherence to the nuclear talks with Tehran, even though it was a heavy-handed crackdown, during which, according to Iranian human rights activists, at least 537 protesters were murdered by the Iranian security forces.
There is no strategy against Iran
Despite the failure of the talks with Tehran so far, during his entire term Biden did not formulate an alternative strategy for the nuclear talks.
As part of the ongoing courtship, the administration ignores the grave human violations committed by the regime, and its significant part in the attacks against American forces in the region, and will even fuel Tehran with billions of dollars that Iran's economy desperately needs to "keep its head above water."
It is therefore no wonder that in the era of Biden, Khamenei is in no hurry to return to the reality of the agreement and believes that it is within Tehran's power to overcome the economic crisis even without returning to the nuclear agreement.
It is appropriate that the Biden administration at least formulate a Plan B even before the presidential elections.
In this framework, he must exert appropriate pressure on Tehran to force it to flex its conditions for returning to the nuclear agreement.
For this he must strictly enforce the sanctions, put the military option on the table and punish Tehran for its significant role in promoting attacks against the US in the region.
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