The military regimes of the Sahel transfer the struggle between Russia and the West to Africa

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, three Sahel countries governed by military regimes after coups d'état in recent years, announced this Sunday their joint decision to withdraw, with immediate effect, from the Economic Community of West African States (Cedeao ), a regional organization made up of 15 nations and created in 1975. The three countries had been provisionally suspended from ECOWAS and Mali and Niger were punished with economic sanctions, which had caused a deterioration in relations with this organization, which they accuse of be instrumentalized by the West.

At the same time, after expelling French soldiers from their territory, these regimes have approached Russia as their new great military ally.

The decision was made public this Sunday at noon through a joint statement signed in the three capitals, Ouagadougou, Bamako and Niamey, by the spokespersons of the three governments on behalf of their respective heads of state, Captain Ibrahim Traoré (Burkina Faso), Colonel Assimi Goïta (Mali) and General Abdourahamane Tiani (Niger).

“ECOWAS, under the influence of foreign powers and betraying its founding principles,” the statement said, “has become a threat to its member states and their populations, whose happiness it is supposed to guarantee.”

The official note accuses ECOWAS of lacking support in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, one of the main challenges they face, and of imposing harsh sanctions after the coups d'état: “This organization did not provide assistance to our States within the framework of our existential fight against terrorism and insecurity;

Worse still, when our States decided to take their destiny into their own hands, [ECOWAS] adopted an irrational and unacceptable position by imposing illegal, illegitimate, inhuman and irresponsible sanctions in violation of its own norms, which has weakened populations already hit by years of violence imposed by instrumentalized and remote-controlled terrorist hordes.”

Two very divided blocks

The historic decision has repercussions ranging from monetary policy, since they use a common currency with neighboring countries, to limits on intraregional population movements.

But, above all, it configures a geopolitical scenario radically different from the current one.

From now on, West Africa has two deeply divided blocs: on the one hand, a Cedeao currently led by the president of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, made up of other heavyweights such as Senegal, Ivory Coast and Ghana and with excellent relations with West;

on the other, the three countries governed by military regimes that last September created a mutual defense body, the Sahel State Alliance, blew up the G5 of the Sahel and that have strengthened their ties with Russia in the last three years, especially in the field of security.

Article 91 of ECOWAS contemplates the possibility of voluntary withdrawal by some of its member states, but establishes a period of one year for said decision to become effective from the moment of its official notification.

De facto, the three Sahel countries were temporarily suspended after the coups d'état, but their diplomats continued to attend meetings and held parallel meetings with their counterparts, especially aimed at putting pressure on the reduction or elimination of the sanctions approved by the regional body.

Until now, ECOWAS, which insisted on holding elections to return power to civilians, had only alleviated part of the punishment that weighed on Mali.

Mali, which experienced the rise to power of the military in 2020, would have to hold elections in the current year 2024, according to the transition plan drawn up by the coup plotters.

However, the appointment with the polls was postponed

sine die

by the authorities.

In Burkina Faso, when Captain Ibrahim Traoré took power in 2022 he declared that he would respect the commitment of his predecessor, General Damiba, to organize elections this year.

But later he assured that his priority was to end terrorism and restore territorial integrity, also postponing the elections.

For his part, General Tiani in Niger, leader of the July 2023 coup, announced a transition of about three years, but stated that its exact duration had to be set through a national dialogue process that has not even begun.

One of the moments of greatest tension between ECOWAS and the three countries occurred last summer after the coup d'état in Niger.

The regional organization planned and prepared a military intervention led by Nigeria and with the explicit support of Senegal, Benin and Ivory Coast, among others, to dislodge the coup plotters and return President Mohamed Bazoum to the Presidency of the country.

Cedeao even asked the European Union for financial support for this intervention.

However, the new Nigerien authorities obtained the immediate support of the military junta of Burkina Faso and Mali and the fear of a regional conflict cooled this possibility.

The announcement of the withdrawal of the three countries from ECOWAS comes at a time of special intensity in the counteroffensive of the three armies against the jihadism of the local branches of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, especially in Burkina Faso and Mali, where They fight and suffer attacks almost daily.

At the same time, the Malian army is also facing, with the support of Wagner's Russian mercenaries, the Tuareg separatist groups in the north of the country.

On January 25, the Malian military junta definitively buried the Algiers peace agreement that had put an end to the 2012-2013 conflict.

The independence supporters consider this breakup as a de facto declaration of war.

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