The Israeli flexibility guiding the abductees deal at hand shows that the political echelon is unable to withstand the pressure of the abductees' families, but at the same time there is an understanding that the campaign against Hamas is not likely to end soon.
It is estimated that the plan being discussed includes a significant number of terrorists released for each abductee, including "heavy" killers, along with a longer pause in the fighting.
Given a long battle ahead and an hourglass that does not play in favor of those in captivity, the political echelon is expected to subordinate the military considerations in favor of reaching a deal - even if under bad conditions - in order to evacuate and complete the task of defeating Hamas without the political pressure at home.
Officials familiar with the negotiations for the deal revealed yesterday in a conversation with "Israel Hayom" that the Israeli achievement at the moment is that the mediators, together with the head of the Mossad, Dedi Barnea, and the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, managed to produce a constructive dialogue that does not include the cessation of hostilities. But alongside this achievement, the price required is still high, and includes a long-term pause in the fighting and the release of hundreds or thousands of terrorists with "blood on their hands." This price, too, threatens the survival of the government internally.
The Chief of Staff: "We are applying military pressure to bring about a deal" // Shmuel Buchris
As revealed today (Monday) on the "Israel Hayom" website, Barnea and Bar conveyed to the brokers a message according to which Israel would be willing to be flexible in all the details of the deal: days of truce, release of terrorists and increased humanitarian aid.
All these under one caveat: ending the war is not on the table.
With this message, Qatar, Egypt and the US set out in an attempt to get Hamas to discuss the details of the deal, knowing that Israel is not prepared to discuss the end of the war on the one hand, but there is a willingness to "generosity" in the rest of the details. Last night, the war cabinet ministers met with the heads of the Shin Bet and the Mossad To guide them on how to continue the negotiations that are expected to take place this week to advance the deal.
The new Israeli formula is in fact similar to the one presented to Hamas in the previous deal, only this time it is about volumes that may cast doubt on the army's ability to resume the war afterwards.
In fact, a two-month truce and the release of terrorists may put at risk not only 136 abductees, but also millions of citizens.
Despite the explanation of the political echelon that "attacks have always been and will be", releasing terrorists into the territory increases the risk of attacks.
And while Judea and Samaria will celebrate the release of the terrorists with Hamas flags that represent a murderous ideology, in the two months that Hamas will receive it will be able to restore some of its capabilities in the Strip.
Four pressure groups
Representatives from four pressure groups came to the Knesset yesterday (Monday): the families of the abductees from the Ronan Tzur headquarters, the families of the abductees from the "Forum Tikva", mothers of the fighters and "The Scouts".
When they spoke in front of the members of the Knesset, the ideological gap between the groups was revealed.
The families of the abductees demand that every other national interest be subordinated to this, including the protection of millions of citizens.
For them, the state has failed to protect the lives of its citizens and therefore must do everything to free them.
The families of the abductees at the Gaza border, photo: Headquarters of the families
In the Tikva forum, on the other hand, they demand to increase the military pressure and lift humanitarian restrictions in order to "suffocate the terrorists" until they release their loved ones, since in their opinion there is no reason to pay bloodthirsty terrorists with toffins.
Despite the gap between them, in both groups of families the partnership of fate could be seen since October 7.
On the other hand, the members of the "Hatzoft" forum sought to warn the members of the Knesset and the government not to fall victim - once again - to the ruling ideology in the army and the political ranks, which sees the Palestinian Authority as an accomplice.
The horror scenario they warn of is called "A Red Surge", in which bloodthirsty terrorists will wash away the settlements in Judea and Samaria.
The mothers of the fighters want to allow their children to win, and not to sacrifice them on the altar of past assumptions that have already exacted a price - humanitarian aid to terrorists, dangerous instructions to open fire and life-threatening ceasefires.
An IDF tank watches over Gaza, photo: AFP
This tension between the four groups, which represent different populations and angles in the Israeli public, will be the one that will ultimately dictate the issue of the price that Israel will be willing to pay as part of a hostage deal.
Not only the fate of the abductees is at stake here, but the fate of 9 million citizens.
A concession that is too big will dictate the pace of the following acts of kidnapping, any weakness will be perceived as a loophole that invites the next attack.
The political system is also waking up: a long-term lull in the fighting will lead to a recalculation of course for Benny Gantz on the one hand and Ben Gvir on the other.
The politicians outside the field are waiting and are already improving positions.
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