As of: January 29, 2024, 1:34 p.m
By: Michael Hirz
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WDR program director Jörg Schönenborn is one of the best-known TV faces when it comes to surveys and elections.
He knows what worries the population and leads to extreme parties.
Cologne – If people don’t feel well, they go to the doctor.
He first makes a diagnosis before starting treatment.
When a society doesn't feel comfortable, it often asks pollsters.
For example, forsa and the ARD Deutschlandtrend regularly provide mood images that provide information about the state of our society.
One of the best-known faces among these diagnosticians who regularly feel the pulse of Germany is Jörg Schönenborn, program director at WDR.
I spoke to him at the beginning of this very special year, a year in which European elections, three state parliament elections and the US presidential elections can bring about dramatic changes.
ARD Germany trend: 83 percent are concerned about the future
“Optimists are having a difficult time right now,” says Schönenborn. Only 13 percent of those surveyed were confident, 83 percent were worried about the future.
Another problem is that the traffic light coalition “does not convey a feeling of departure and renewal”.
Of the many concerns that were rampant among the population - climate change, crime, loss of prosperity - that had a strong influence on the mood, one in particular stands out: 2022 was the year with the largest immigration since records began.
Jörg Schönenborn is program director for information at WDR – and a proven survey expert.
© WDR & Panthermedia / Imago
“A majority of the population has the impression that more migrants are coming to us than we can handle,” said Schönenborn.
This gives the impression that the state is losing control.
“There is mostly no xenophobic attitude behind this,” he interprets, but rather the fear of being helpless against this development “in a world of crises and threats.”
Too many deficits: That's why dissatisfaction with the state is particularly great
This brings the unpopular Berlin traffic light coalition into focus, although Jörg Schönenborn puts it into perspective that criticism of federal governments and poor government craftsmanship are not a unique selling point of the belligerent Scholz team.
However, the experience of the last few years has shown “that we have a weak state in many respects: it has difficulty organizing masks and vaccines, a Bundeswehr that cannot defend our country, a railway that, in its current state, can operate even without a strike can no longer drive,” not to mention deficits in digitalization and climate protection.
That is why there is particularly great dissatisfaction with a government that cannot keep its promises.
All of this contributed to the success of the AfD.
The loyalty to parties has decreased significantly over the years, and the “willingness to try out parties that one would have previously shaken one's head about” has correspondingly increased.
Schönenborn is reassuring in one respect: according to many studies, the proportion of people with extremist or strongly right-wing attitudes has remained at the same level in recent years.
This is a minority, but the AfD has had unusually strong ties to it for six months.
The party has been “exploiting its potential to a great extent” in surveys since the summer.
Even if voting behavior has become very volatile overall, the AfD has “permanently established itself”.
However, more than half of potential AfD voters could imagine returning to a centrist party - if trust in the competence of the other parties is restored.
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Potential of the Wagenknecht party BSW: opportunities and risks
The dissatisfaction with the traditional range of democratic parties is creating space for new offers such as the recently founded Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).
According to Schönenborn, the potential of this party cannot be precisely quantified.
It is interesting that the AfD, for example, was elected largely independently of leaders and that “on the contrary, BSW is now relying on a prominent personality”.
There is certainly an opportunity in this, but above all a very big risk.”
Schönenborn sees the “danger of a downward spiral” in the fragmentation of the party landscape.
Because “if the proportion of established parties from the broad political center continues to decline, they will – see Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, Saxony – become more and more dependent on alliances and agreements that do not really appear credible.” The more partners a coalition needs and The further apart they are politically, the less the political result will satisfy their supporters.
Looking at the appearance of the traffic light seems to confirm this thesis.
If this analysis of a political landscape in transition is not cheerful, it is at least more exciting than it has been for a long time.
That's why we at the Cologne Press Club are very happy to have had Gerhart Baum for our annual opening discussion.
On January 31, 2024, the former Federal Minister of the Interior and grand old man of the FDP will be a guest at the Excelsior Hotel Ernst at Cologne Cathedral.
I am very excited and look forward to his perspective.
The controversial liberal has not only consciously experienced politics in Germany for many decades, he has also significantly shaped and shaped it.
(mh/IDZRNRW)
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24RHEIN guest author Michael Hirz
was, among other things, program managing director and presenter at the political channel Phoenix.
Michael Hirz is now a freelance journalist, communications consultant and sits on the board of the Cologne Press Club.
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