The clash over control of the strategic southern Gaza border threatens to ruin relations between Israel and Egypt 45 years after the peace treaty between the two countries that ended an escalation of regional wars.
The dispute occurs while Cairo also acts as a key mediator to achieve a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which this Tuesday confirmed that it is “studying” an Israeli proposal to stop the bombings lasting several weeks. , in exchange for the release of hostages held captive since October 7 in the Strip.
Tension between the countries has skyrocketed due to the intention of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who continues to reject the truce, to exercise greater control and occupy a narrow border corridor with Egypt, whose status has been regulated since 1979.
After the meeting held on Sunday in Paris by the director of the CIA, William Burns;
the heads of the Mossad (Israel foreign intelligence service), David Barnea, and the Shin Bet (internal security), Rosen Bar;
the director of Egypt's military intelligence service, Abbas Kamel, and the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abderamán Al Thani, the cards to close a ceasefire agreement in Gaza are already on the table.
The Islamist movement continues to formally insist on the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza as a precondition for any agreement, but its top leader, Ismail Haniye, confirmed from Doha that his organization is already “studying” the latest Israeli proposal.
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War between Israel and Gaza, live
Netanyahu only speaks in public of the “total victory” to eradicate Hamas from Gaza and free the hostages, but this Tuesday he added that there will be neither the withdrawal of his troops from Gaza nor the release of “thousands of Palestinian terrorists” imprisoned in prisons. From Israel.
According to information handled by Amos Arel, defense affairs correspondent for the newspaper
Haaretz
,
Israel's latest proposal involves a six-week ceasefire.
In a first phase, it would involve the release of 35 hostages (civilian women and elderly, sick or injured people), in exchange for the release from prison of "several thousand" of the more than 6,000 Palestinian inmates convicted of "crimes." of security".
The Minister of National Security, the extremist Itamar Ben Gvir, has been quick to warn that he will bring down Netanyahu's government if a ceasefire is agreed under these conditions.
Behind Cairo's unease with Israel that disrupts the negotiation of a ceasefire, is the fear that the expansion of the military offensive towards southern Gaza and the orders to relocate the civilian population in increasingly closer areas to Egypt, added to the growing deterioration of the humanitarian situation of those displaced by the war, are the prelude to a massive expulsion of Gazans to the Sinai Peninsula.
The authorities also do not rule out that the crisis will worsen, to the point that many Palestinians try to cross the border by force.
Conclave of the extreme right
In a political conclave last Sunday in Jerusalem attended by 12 members of Netanyahu's Executive and 15 deputies of the ultra-conservative coalition that supports his Government, the radical Minister Ben Gvir once again "encouraged the Palestinian population to leave." Gaza through a “voluntary emigration” plan, as well as the “return home” of settlers, in reference to the 21 Jewish settlements with some 8,000 inhabitants that were dismantled in 2005, when Israel withdrew its troops from the occupied Palestinian coastal enclave. militarily since 1967. Another of the prime minister's main allies, the head of the Finance portfolio, the religious far-right Bezalel Smotrich, has also defended the resettlement of Jewish settlers in the enclave.
Egypt has at all times, and categorically, rejected the expulsion of Gazans to its territory, to avoid being complicit in an “ethnic cleansing” of the Strip and because this would undermine the Palestinian right to create a State that includes Gaza and would convert the Sinai in a base of operations against Israel for the militias of the Palestinian resistance factions.
Netanyahu has not been in favor of reinstating Israeli settlements in Gaza, but neither has he disavowed his extremist partners in the Government, on whom he depends to stay in power, while popular protests are taking place in Israel against the management of a conflict that is heading into its fifth month.
Israel maintains that Hamas brings weapons into the Strip through the demilitarized border zone, known as the Philadelphi or Salah El Din corridor.
Egypt denies such smuggling operations and considers that Israeli officials are only trying to legitimize an eventual military occupation of the corridor, where Cairo has drawn a red line.
“Any Israeli move in this direction will pose a serious threat to [bilateral] relations,” warned the director of Egypt's State Information Service, Diaa Rashwan.
The two countries had already clashed recently after Israel's defense team at the International Court of Justice, which is investigating accusations of incitement to genocide in Gaza brought by South Africa, claimed that Egypt is also responsible for the poor humanitarian aid that It enters the Strip through the Rafah border crossing, which connects the Palestinian enclave with the Sinai, the only one not controlled by Israel.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has refused to speak by phone with Netanyahu in recent weeks, according to Israeli television Channel 13, and just seven days ago he openly rejected a direct request for communication from the cabinet. Israeli leader.
The last time a conversation between the two leaders was made public was at the beginning of last June.
Despite the Egyptian reservation, Al Sisi has openly accused Israel of hindering the entry of humanitarian aid to Gaza through delays in security checks at the border, in order to pressure Hamas into an early release of the hostages it is holding. in their possession: 136, of which 29 have already died, according to the Israeli intelligence services.
The deterioration of the relationship with Israel represents a sensitive diplomatic issue for Egypt, the first Arab country to sign a peace agreement with the Jewish state.
Cairo has also positioned itself as a reference mediator against Hamas in Gaza, which allows it to claim its relevance in the region, especially in the eyes of the United States, from which it receives military and economic aid.
At the same time, official Egyptian sources have leaked to local and international media that they are considering the withdrawal of their ambassador in Tel Aviv, as happened in 1982, after the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.
Senior American and Israeli officials have even mentioned privately to regional media that Cairo has communicated to them its determination to break relations with Israel if its troops finally push the Gazans towards the Sinai.
Internal repercussions of the conflict
On the internal flank, the Egyptian authorities are being forced to maintain a difficult balance between their relations with Israel and the West, and the strong popular support for the Palestinian cause, which has proven to be a great catalyst for social anger and protests.
In parallel to the military offensive in Gaza, Egypt is going through a deep economic crisis, aggravated by the disruption of maritime traffic in the Red Sea, which is sinking Egyptian income from shipping tolls in the Suez Canal.
The conflict has also directly spilled into Egyptian territory on several occasions, which places Cairo in an uncomfortable position domestically, although public reproaches have been avoided.
In October, a stray projectile fired by Israeli troops accidentally hit an Egyptian border control tower and injured several soldiers.
Likewise, drones and missiles apparently launched by Yemen's Huthi movement against Israel had to be intercepted by the Egyptian army near tourist towns in southern Sinai, and on one occasion a rocket landed in the coastal city of Taba.
Israel has also bombed Rafah, on the border with Egypt, on at least four occasions.
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