As of: January 30, 2024, 3:54 p.m
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A container ship at Hamburg's Burchardkai: As an export nation, Germany is heavily dependent on a good global economy.
© Daniel Bockwoldt/dpa
Wars, inflation and a major pandemic have hit the global economy hard in recent years.
But the International Monetary Fund sees better times ahead - albeit slowly at first.
Berlin/Washington - According to the International Monetary Fund, the prospects for the global economy have brightened somewhat.
Global growth is expected to be 3.1 percent this year, 0.2 points more than expected in October, the IMF announced on Tuesday in Johannesburg.
3.2 percent is then expected in 2025.
The USA and China in particular, as the largest economies, are robust.
The Washington-based financial organization upgraded its forecasts for both countries.
Germany is likely to grow this year and next, but less strongly than previously thought.
There will probably not be a hard landing, according to the new global economic outlook.
The IMF experts primarily pointed to the slower rise in inflation in large parts of the world.
This means that the pressure on many countries caused by interest rate increases is decreasing.
Central banks would again have leeway to gradually loosen their monetary policy.
The IMF expects global inflation to reach 5.8 percent this year.
Next year it will probably be 4.4 percent.
For the industrialized countries, 2.6 and then 2.0 percent are predicted, after 4.6 percent in 2023.
Despite the slight improvement, the outlook for the global economy is weak in long-term comparison.
On average between 2000 and 2019 there was growth of 3.8 percent.
The increased interest rates used to combat inflation come at the expense of investments.
In addition, many countries took on massive debt during the corona pandemic and later to cushion high energy prices.
Now government support is gradually being reduced, which is also dampening growth.
Geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine or the renewed Middle East conflict are slowing down international trade.
Growth of 3.3 and then 3.6 percent is expected here in 2024 and 2025.
For comparison: the long-term average is 4.9 percent.
Germany is facing small growth
As an export nation, Germany is feeling this, as are the persistently high energy prices.
The IMF only expects Germany to achieve meager growth of 0.5 percent this year.
Next year it will probably be 1.6 percent.
This means that the estimates from October were reduced by 0.4 points each.
Last year, the German economy even shrank by 0.3 percent due, among other things, to weak exports and poor consumption.
For the USA, the growth forecast for 2024 has been raised significantly by 0.6 points to 2.1 percent.
In 2025 it will probably be 1.7 percent.
According to the IMF, China will grow by 4.6 percent this year, 0.4 points more than previously thought.
In 2025 it will probably be 4.1 percent.
In the forecast, India shows the strongest growth of the major economies, with growth of 6.5 percent.
(
Reuters, lf)