As of: January 30, 2024, 3:05 p.m
By: Lisa Mahnke
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Press
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The Austrian Federal Army outlines threatening times.
A risk report shows numerous sources of conflict.
The defense should be strengthened.
Vienna – The 2024 risk picture presented by the Austrian Ministry of Defense paints a bleak picture.
The title of the 314-page document, “World out of joint,” already gives a first impression.
During the lecture, Major General Peter Vorhofer assessed the risk of a confrontation as “very high”.
“This means that there is a high probability that we will see hybrid warfare in 2024,” explained Vorhofer.
“We are in a phase where it is not yet war, but also no longer peace,” said the major general.
He predicted that military conflicts would increase “because war is back as a dimension of politics.”
In view of what he said were impending threats, Vorhofer called for the Austrian armed forces to be “made capable of war again”.
According to the major general, the disorder would accompany Austria for at least another twenty years.
Cyber attacks, coercion and supply chain disruption: The main risks for Austria
In his presentation, Vorhofer identified a total of eight main risks for Austria.
Among other things, it was about the disruption of supply chains due to conflicts, but also the effects of migration movements.
Cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns are also to be expected given the large number of elections this year.
The major general also warned against attempts by external actors who would want to weaken European integration “through targeted attacks and coercion”.
Overall, it is a perception of threat that can also be found in the preliminary discussions on the Germany operational plan.
The ministry's defense policy director, Arnold Kammel, also addressed the European elections in this context.
According to this, the “European weakness of action” in the 2014 European elections “invited” Putin to take the first aggressive steps against Ukraine and the current election should not be underestimated.
With regard to Russia, military strategist Günter Hofbauer emphasized: “2014 was the latest point in time when we in Europe should have reacted.”
Not just the Ukraine war in focus: Austria’s security report on the “Ring of Fire”
The 2024 risk picture marked the start of the year for Austrian security policy and is intended to be groundbreaking for the Austrian Ministry of Defense over the next twelve to 18 months.
According to Major General Vorhofer, the “ring of fire” discussed at the event refers to the geographical ring of conflicts and challenges that concern Austria.
This year's Austrian risk report shows a variety of perceived threats.
© IMAGO/Michael Indrax/SEPA.Media
According to Vorhofer, this ring includes, in addition to the Ukraine war, the Taiwan conflict and the Middle East, among other things.
Guenther Barnet, a defense ministry official, called the possibility of a conflagration in the Middle East crucial.
Above all, a destabilization of Jordan could open more doors for military actions by Iran.
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The experts Antonia Witt and Marie-Janine Calic also assess the Africa and Western Balkans regions rather negatively.
However, a war between Bosnia, Serbia and Kosovo is unlikely, said Calic: “If push comes to shove,” Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic would side with the EU.
Austrian Defense Minister Tanner wants to strengthen defense
“If the world is out of control, then we shouldn’t do it ourselves,” explained Austrian Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner (ÖVP).
In her statement, she acknowledged European cooperation and expressly mentioned the air defense project called “European Sky Shield,” which the opposition criticized as a breach of neutrality.
Like many European countries, Austria also passed a billion-dollar package to upgrade the armed forces.
Tanner stated that this was also ensured across legislative periods by being anchored in the law.
However, the defense minister also spoke out against the decision against an Austrian professional army in the 2013 referendum, especially now “when other states are thinking about reinstating compulsory military service.”
However, the ÖVP politician is also planning more “intellectual national defense” and would like to make the concept of national defense, but also the risk image, available to schools and universities for anchoring in the learning plans.
The reason is concern about “how little the future generation particularly appreciates the fact that we live in a democracy.”
(lismah)