The climate agenda also goes to the polls this 2024 in Latin America

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It is common knowledge that the Latin American climate agenda does not figure in the priorities of our regional policy and, therefore, it is not, as in other parts of the world, an element that moves the electoral or economic needle.

This year, in which half of the world's population goes to elections (including the US, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa);

Latin America will have its own dose of democracy with elections in several countries.

In Uruguay, where there is still no clarity about the succession, after the Electoral Court increased partisan participation - including the Libertarian Party that emulates Milei's;

in Panama, complex elections will be held following the Supreme Court's ruling to close the largest copper mine in Central America for environmental reasons;

and in Mexico, with an election that already has hints of being historic by having for the first time two women candidates as leaders of the most important parties and coalitions.

There will also be several exercises in which re-election seems feasible, including Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, due to his direct confrontation with organized crime and despite being in one of the worst human rights violation crises in its recent history;

Luis Abinader in the Dominican Republic, as a result of its remarkable post-pandemic economic recovery;

and Venezuela, where no feasible replacements for Maduro are in sight.

In this panorama, the greatest implications of these electoral winds for the climate agenda could come from the presidential change in Mexico - a G20 country, the 13th largest emitter of greenhouse gases, since Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as Amlo, has acted as a tacit climate change denier, while Claudia Sheinbaum, the López Obrador candidate at the top of the polls, has a climate scientific background and changes in energy priorities would be expected to give greater room to renewable energies and regain the country's leadership in politics international climate.

While the course of Mexican politics is defined in the electoral polls in the middle of the year, the region has certain climate leaders that will have to be closely monitored this year.

On the one hand, Lula da Silva in Brazil has been delivering results (61% decrease in deforestation in that country in 2023, compared to the previous year) and generating interest by hosting the G20 this year and the 2025 Climate Summit (COP30). ).

On the other hand, Colombia, led by President Gustavo Petro, has raised its voice for climate justice in various international forums - this year it will host COP16 of the Biodiversity Convention - seeking to ensure the elimination of fossil fuels and transform systems of debt that are unsustainable for the developing world.

Likewise, Gabriel Boric's management in Chile is making progress in ensuring the exit from coal by 2030 and has begun to take steps to gradually eliminate other fossil fuels.

And, in a feat that seems biblical, the Prime Minister of Barbados (a nation of 439 square kilometers with 0.003% of the world's population), Mia Amor Mottley, carries the banner of the smallest and most vulnerable countries in the face of climate change , and has put together unlikely coalitions (with France) to reform the international financial system, also leading by example that his country will eliminate fossil fuels by 2030.

The political panorama of Latin America is permeated by situations that have pressured the region for decades and that do not give truce.

Economic inequality, migration and the overwhelming escalation of violence, which has even reached environmental defenders.

These have had an obvious electoral impact, and in some cases result in climate change dropping several more places on the list of development priorities.

Such is the case of Costa Rica, which went from being one of the main climate leaders to a Government that is considering investing in fossils, even turning its back on initiatives it had helped create such as the

Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance

(BOGA) and without having ratified the Escazú Agreement which, in fact, is named after a Costa Rican city.

Peru, which always had a solid environmental commitment, has been relegated to the stands due to its incessant political and social crisis.

Paraguay has the second highest deforestation rate in South America and an Agriculture Minister who 'doubts' that climate change is real.

Mexico continues to bet on the construction of new refineries, has prioritized the construction of the Mayan Train over environmental warnings and broad opposition from Mexican civil society, and carried out significant budget cuts to environmental portfolios.

And Argentina decided to elect Javier Milei as resident, a climate change denier whose first act of government was to eliminate the Ministry of the Environment, leaving the international community on tenterhooks about its climate commitments.

The truth is that the climate urgency requires going beyond the false dilemma that we must decide between addressing climate change or other development priorities.

Our leaders, those who already govern and those who will arrive, have the legal obligation to make climate action a development policy, in response to their international commitments to the United Nations, commitments that must also be presented renewed and more ambitious towards the end of the year. .

We, who vote, must know this and we must go to the polls to vote for the climate proposals of the candidates, or punish the absence of them.

We must continue to demand that current leadership be reflected in forceful, real actions, with environmental and social impact, beyond the eloquence of their speeches or looking for the best photo at the upcoming summits.

And from all our Governments, even those that have been left behind, we hope that they will consider the opportunities and benefits of decarbonization and the resilience of our Latin America, so as not to miss the train of the unstoppable climate transition.

Alejandra López Carbajal

is Director of Climate Diplomacy at Transforma.