The political and military leadership in Ukraine is fighting a power battle at the worst possible time.
On Monday afternoon, the news broke, announced by the media and opposition politicians, that the head of the Armed Forces, Valeri Zaluzhni, was going to be fired that same night by the president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
The hours went by with multiple anonymous sources, close to the general and the president, leaking information about the possible replacement, until the Ministry of Defense and Zelensky's spokesperson denied it.
The damage is already irreparable, according to analysts, because the distance between the two has been confirmed.
The schism also comes when Russia once again controls the war front and Ukraine has no signs of being able to recover lost territory.
Zelensky summoned Zaluzhni on Monday afternoon to ask him to resign, according to media outlets such as
ZN ,
The Economist
correspondent
Oliver Carroll and journalist Yuri Butusov, head of the
Censor Net
media outlet and considered a trusted man of the general.
These and other media outlets, in addition to political figures such as the opposition Oleksii Goncharenko, assured that the cessation decree was already on the table.
Zaluzhni, according to
ZN
, refused to resign and replied to Zelensky that if he wanted to relieve him, he had to fire him.
Butusov added that Zelensky had to consult the decision with his main international allies.
Graffiti in the center of Chasiv Yar with the image of the General Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeri Zaluzhni, which reads: “No matter how hard it may be for us, but it certainly will not be a shame.”Luis from Vega
Zaluzhni's reputation as a military leader is one of Ukraine's strongest assets with its NATO partners.
But more importantly, Ukrainian society and troops consider him a hero.
Only Zaluzhny competes for the highest popularity in polls with Zelensky.
And above all, the army is with him.
The head of the Armed Forces published on his social networks, on Monday night, when his dismissal had already been officially denied, a photo with also Lieutenant General Serhii Shaptala, chief of the General Staff.
The image was interpreted as a sign that the military establishment is united against the presidency.
Discrepancies since the start of the war
The discrepancies between Zelensky and Zaluzhni go back a long way, since the beginning of the invasion, in February 2022. Three sources close to the general consulted by this newspaper in the almost two years of war explained that in the first weeks of the war, Zaluzhni discussed heatedly with Zelensky and his right-hand man, Andrii Yermak, arguing that it was possible to resist the Russian attack.
The presidency had doubts, and the proof of this, according to these sources, was evident in the first two weeks of fighting, when Zelensky was still proposing to negotiate a ceasefire with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Weeks before beginning the invasion, Zaluzhni alerted the political leadership that the Russian offensive was imminent, but Zelensky ruled out until the last moment that the threat was possible.
Since then, significant differences have arisen.
Zelensky has relieved Zaluzhni's trusted officers without informing him, as the head of the Armed Forces himself has publicly lamented.
The debate over the future law for the mobilization of new troops has also been a source of contention: the army is asking for half a million new soldiers, but Zelensky wants to reduce the number due to the unpopularity of the measure.
Few men want to be drafted at a time when the war has no signs of ending and when Russia is advancing again.
The bitterest clash between the two leaders occurred last November, when Zaluzhni published an essay and interview in
The Economist
in which he confirmed a gloomy outlook for the future of the conflict: the war front was frozen, as he confirmed, Ukraine had no sufficient resources to launch a new offensive in 2024. Zelensky publicly disavowed Zaluzhni, replying that Ukrainian troops could continue to gain ground.
The situation on the battlefield has proven that Zaluzhni was right.
There is also another source of mistrust between the two, the sabotage of the Nordstream underwater gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
Nordstream is 51% owned by Gazprom, a Russian state company, and 49% owned by European companies.
An explosion destroyed the infrastructure in September 2022.
German, Swedish and Danish justice have concluded that it was sabotage and, as has emerged in the German and American press, they point to the responsibility of a Ukrainian special forces unit.
Last November, The Washington Post
published part of the content of the investigations, also with the collaboration of the US intelligence services.
According to this information, the saboteurs acted under the direct command of Zaluzhni and without Zelensky knowing anything about it.
The attack on Nordstream, an energy infrastructure in the EU, has represented the most serious conflict of interest between kyiv and its European allies.
The opposition takes sides
Iuliia Mendel, Zelensky's former spokesperson, wrote on her social networks on Monday that the break with Zaluzhni is final: “Rumors about the replacement of the current commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army have circulated for months, or even a year.
This could happen sooner or later.
“There is political disaffection with the military leadership.”
Colonel Roman Kotsenko, deputy of the opposition party Holos, stated in
Espresso
that the Government was not categorical in denying the possibility of the replacement and in supporting Zaluzhni.
“We have heard on several occasions that the president wants this change, the candidates to succeed him [Zaluzhni] have been leaked and a smear campaign has even been organized.”
The harshest words against Zaluzhni were issued by the independent deputy Mariana Bezhula, close to Zelensky's party, Servant of the People.
In a statement, Bezhula accused the commander in chief of having alcoholism problems and of living far from the reality of the troops on the front: “The general blackmails by threatening that, if he is dismissed, he will not continue in the Armed Forces.
“That will end up happening.”
“The sooner it happens, in my opinion, the better,” Bezhula noted, “because there will be more options to avoid the hell of destruction on our people, not only from the Russians but from our outdated Soviet army.”
Criticism of Zaluzhni was the exception because above all his defenders made themselves heard.
Ilia Ponomarenko, one of the most cited defense analysts in Ukraine, harshly attacked Zelensky: “The dismissal of General Zaluzhni would not only be a shot in the foot, but also in the head.”
“General Zaluzhni has a reputation as an iron general and savior of the nation, the embodiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that saved the country,” Ponomarenko wrote, explaining the logic of the internal conflict: “There is a discussion between politicians and generals about Who is to blame for the failed 2023 campaign and the current situation.
The president's office could be thinking of someone who doesn't shine as brightly next to Zelensky, but they can't afford it.
Zaluzhni is now too big to be kicked out.”
Zelensky's opposition parties, which are a parliamentary minority, have activated political debate and criticism of the president's management in the last two months.
The controversy with Zaluzhni has been an ideal opportunity to position oneself close to the general and to fish in troubled waters.
Petro Poroshenko, former president and founder of the main opposition force, European Solidarity, published a harsh statement in which he accused Zelensky of being moved by “emotions and jealousy.”
“Zaluzhni's resignation would be a shot against national unity.
Unity is only possible around the Armed Forces, and Valeri Zaluzhni is its personification.
[...] In Brussels they are
shocked
by these rumors, and in Moscow they are drowning in laughter,” the former president stressed.
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