As of: January 30, 2024, 10:04 a.m
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Shortly after the first party conference, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance was pleased with strong poll results.
Forming coalitions at the federal level is becoming more difficult.
Berlin - The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is barely a month old and is already causing a stir among demographers and the first exclamation point in the party landscape.
According to a survey by the Insa Institute on behalf of
Bild,
the BSW, which recently held its first party conference, would immediately reach a whopping seven percent if there were a federal election next Sunday.
But that's not all: the bottom line is that the voter potential of the new party, the majority of whose founding members consist of former members of the Left Party, is likely to be significantly higher.
Sahra Wagenknecht |
|
|---|---|
Born: |
July 16, 1969 in Jena |
Previous parties: |
SED, PDS, The Left, Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (current) |
Current political function: |
Chairwoman of the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (since January 8th, together with Amira Mohamed Ali) |
According to surveys, Wagenknecht's party is at seven percent for the federal election
The Insa voter potential analysis shows that the BSW can expect around four percent of so-called “safe votes” in an upcoming federal election.
In addition, the pollsters assume that - in addition to the currently estimated seven percent of BSW approval - another eleven percent of voters could imagine voting for the BSW.
The bottom line is that the potential of the Wagenknecht party would be an impressive 18 percent.
Among the other parties, the SPD improved by one percentage point to 14.5 percent.
The Left Party is also growing by half a point - but with currently 3.5 percent of the potential vote, it would clearly miss the five percent hurdle and thus enter the Bundestag.
The CDU/CSU remains the sovereign top dog (30 percent), despite losing half a percentage point.
Incidentally, the AfD (21 percent) also suffered this loss, while the Greens (12.5 percent), FDP (5 percent) and the Free Voters (2.5 percent) stagnated on their Insa forecasts from the previous week.
Sahra Wagenknecht can look forward to her first strong Bundestag poll results with her new alliance.
© IMAGO/dts news agency
BSW shakes up the party landscape, no traffic light majority
The current survey results are causing further shifts and possible restructuring in the party and coalition landscape.
Even with the entry of the BSW, it remains the case that the current traffic light government (32 percent) can no longer achieve a parliamentary majority.
As of today, the same applies to alliances made up of the CDU/CSU and the Greens or the CDU/CSU and the SPD.
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A so-called Kenya coalition (Union, SPD, Greens), which would currently reach 57 percent, a Jamaica coalition (Union, Greens, FDP - 47.5 percent) or a Germany coalition would be mathematically possible , at 49.5 percent, from the Union, SPD and FDP.
Because of Wagenknecht's party: only four-party alliances are possible
Due to the relevant entry of the BSW into the election forecasts, only a certain quantitative party constellation would currently be conceivable, as Insa boss Hermann Binkert explains in
Bild
: “No government can be formed without and against the Union.
Because the Wagenknecht party jumps the five percent hurdle, only four party alliances are possible – the two Union parties plus two other parties.”
Binkert continued that further coalition options would only arise if parties decided to integrate the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance into a government coalition.
At the moment it is still questionable whether and which parties can imagine working with the BSW.
SPD federal chairman Lars Klingbeil recently warned against the new alliance and equated it with the AfD and Putin.
(chnnn)
Note: The opinion research institute Insa surveyed a total of 2,002 people from January 26th to 29th, 2024. The maximum statistical error tolerance is +/- 2.5 percentage points.