As of: January 31, 2024, 4:16 p.m
By: Lisa Mahnke
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Split
In an election, neither BSW nor Free Voters would get into the Bundestag.
Wagenknecht and Aiwanger are too unpopular.
The government also lacks trust.
Berlin – The BSW and the Free Voters are neck and neck in the latest Forsa survey.
Both would fail at the five percent hurdle in the current Sunday question.
The FDP and Die Linke were also at three percent.
The electoral law reform passed by the Bundestag and approved by the Federal Constitutional Court would also prevent direct mandates from entering parliament.
The Left and the Free Voters have shown only slight fluctuations in their poll numbers for over a year.
Meanwhile, over the last few years of the FDP's legislative period, a downward trend became established: since October 2021, the economically liberal party has lost over ten percentage points.
The BSW has only appeared in the statistics for about a month and since then it has only been able to impress in a few federal states.
Lack of trust: Wagenknecht and Aiwanger struggle with the five percent hurdle
The Forsa Institute saw the politician ranking as a reason for the low values of the BSW and the Free Voters: Sahra Wagenknecht and Hubert Aiwanger were in the bottom quarter of the scale in the current ranking.
Only 25 percent of those surveyed trust Wagenknecht, 24 percent trust Hubert Aiwanger.
Only Janine Wissler from the Left Party (18 percent) and Alice Weidel from the AfD (15 percent) had worse results.
In contrast, the highest value in the survey was for Boris Pistorius (SPD), who achieved 55 percent in the ranking.
Other politicians from the SPD and the Greens ranked in the third decile, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz performed particularly poorly among government politicians at 30 percent.
However, things look even worse for Nancy Faeser (26 percent) and Christian Lindner (29 percent).
According to Forsa, the newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht alliance is having difficulty overcoming the five percent hurdle.
© IMAGO/HMB Media/Uwe Koch
The CDU/CSU opposition in particular enjoyed widespread popularity in comparison.
CDU leader Daniel Günther achieved 48 percent in the current survey, while the lowest value for Friedrich Merz (35 percent) is also around the government average.
Forsa wrote that the value of the Union may have increased slightly “not because of, but despite Friedrich Merz,” because the results of the other prime ministers are significantly higher.
Hendrik Wüst achieved 47 percent, while Markus Söder got 41 percent.
Traffic light disappointment is evident in survey results
Although not comparable to Angela Merkel, Robert Habeck, Scholz and Lindner were shown a relatively high level of trust at the beginning of the legislative period, according to Forsa.
For the 2021 federal election, the current Chancellor Scholz achieved a record level of almost 55 percent trust.
Except for a small increase in March 2022, trust in the three politicians has fallen steadily since then.
In the January survey this year, how much certain politicians are trusted in the ranking depended primarily on party preference.
Here too, only Boris Pistorius was able to convince supporters of both the SPD, the Greens and the SPD.
Almost none of the cabinet members scored points with supporters of the Union, the AfD and the BSW.
It became clear that AfD supporters in particular have little trust in the government.
According to Correctiv research: AfD loses for the first time in a year
About three weeks after the publication of the Correctiv research, the AfD's poll numbers fell below 20 percent for the first time since July last year.
After the values of the Sunday question from the Forsa Institute rose almost steadily for a year, the latest results showed that the growth of the partly recognized right-wing extremist party is not unstoppable.
It lost one percentage point and comes to 19 percent.
Political party |
Result in percent (change) |
|---|---|
CDU/CSU |
32 (+1) |
AfD |
19 (-1) |
SPD |
15 (+1) |
Greens |
14 |
FDP |
3 (-1) |
The left |
3 (-1) |
Free voters |
3 |
BSW |
3 |
Other |
8 (+1) |
Even if Values Union members were also involved in the Potsdam meeting, there were no losses here.
The CDU/CSU gained one percentage point compared to the last survey and is now at 32 percent.
(lismah)
Note: The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland from January 23rd to 29th, 2024. Database: 2506 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 2.5 percentage points.