Correspondent in Brussels
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A very high-risk summit is taking place this Thursday in Brussels.
The meeting of the Twenty-Seven will be almost exclusively devoted to the EU's financial and military support for Ukraine.
The result is 50 billion euros in financial aid for kyiv (17 billion in donations and 33 billion in loans).
And yet another promise that Europe will continue to supply weapons.
However, Ukraine is running out of steam.
On the battlefield, soldiers lack weapons and ammunition.
Support is also seizing up on both sides of the Atlantic.
The $61 billion package promised by President Joe Biden is blocked by Congress.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also visit Washington during the first half of February.
“
He is going there to convince the Americans to continue to support Ukraine.
It’s the anxiety of the payer of last resort
,” quips a European diplomat.
Of the million shells promised a year ago, the Europeans have only provided 330,000.
The Ukrainian state's lack of liquidity will be acutely felt very soon, at the beginning of March, according to the International Monetary Fund.
In a note published on January 25, the Economic Strategy Center, an independent think tank based in Kiev, indicates that this country “has
not yet received any foreign financial aid since the beginning of 2024”.
A unique parade
In this context, Europeans do not have the right to fail.
It would be another gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, Viktor Orban is once again threatening to torpedo the meeting.
A first summit failed in mid-December due to the veto of the Hungarian Prime Minister, who is close to both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, whom he wants to see return to the White House in 2025. The “Twenty-Six” thought that A month and a half would be enough to make the strong man of Budapest listen to reason.
We must, they said, give him time after his pseudo green light on the start of negotiations for Ukraine's accession to the EU.
In an unprecedented display, Orban left the room to let the “Twenty-Six” vote.
“
I can’t do that anymore.
I have already given everything on membership
,” he then explained to Charles Michel, to justify his refusal to move forward.
On Wednesday, while a majority of leaders were due to meet at the end of the afternoon at the Commission headquarters to pay a final tribute to Jacques Delors and then share a dinner at the Council, the situation was still blocked.
If he now accepts that the money promised to President Zelensky be integrated into the European budget - and therefore partly financed by Hungary -, Viktor Orban also wants these 50 billion euros disbursed over four years to be the subject of a vote each year… unanimously.
Which would give him other possibilities to use his veto in the future.
Instead of this annual vote, they propose to Orban to organize an annual debate between them on the implementation of financial aid to Ukraine, but without giving the possibility of veto.
This solution “
is clearly an extended hand to Hungary
,” says a European diplomat.
As the pre-summit discussions bogged down, the tone towards Orban hardened considerably on both sides of the Atlantic.
Especially since Hungary has still not ratified Sweden's membership in NATO, despite promises that its country would not be the last.
It has been since Turkey took the steps.
“
I am concerned about Hungarian behavior.
I really don't understand how a country like Hungary, which depends economically on its membership in the EU, and for its security on its membership in NATO, can exploit the situation for its own benefit, and take hostage Ukraine in an internal battle within the EU
,” former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen confided to a few journalists on Tuesday.
Also read: NATO membership: Sweden believes it has “no reason to negotiate” with Hungary
For its part, Brussels deliberately raised the risks that a new veto would pose to the Hungarian economy.
There was talk of activating Article 7.2 of the EU Treaty which can result in depriving a country of its right to vote.
In a note relayed by the FT and written by an EU official, there was talk of not paying Hungary the money promised in Budapest which the Commission is still withholding due to the breaches the country is experiencing on the Rule of law.
An option immediately dismissed by a number of diplomats and senior EU officials but which caused the Hungarian currency to fall by 0.7% against the euro on Monday.
Counterproductive, this leak allowed the Hungarian Prime Minister to loudly denounce in
Le Point
“
the political blackmail”
of the EU on the rule of law.
If Viktor Orban maintains his veto at the meeting of the Twenty-Seven, the EU will be able to release emergency aid of 18 billion euros in loans, allowing Ukraine to cope in the medium term, without give it the long-term predictability promised by the EU.
In this case, Europeans will be faced with a real political problem.
How to manage the Hungarian leader, who must also take over the presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of the year?
In December, Emmanuel Macron took the lead.
“
I expect from Viktor Orban in the coming months that, being respected, his legitimate interests being taken into account, he will behave like a European and not take our political progress hostage.