Benjamin Morel is a lecturer in public law at the University of Paris
2
Panthéon-Assas.
Latest work published
:
“
France in crumbs
”
(Éditions du Cerf, 2023).
A prime minister's general policy speech has rarely been delivered in such an inauspicious climate.
A format left free by the Constitution, the general policy speech during an appointment to Matignon nevertheless resembles a constrained exercise.
On the form, we must give a breath;
in substance, a legislative program.
However, it is very difficult to breathe when, appointed three weeks ago, the Prime Minister finds himself in an agricultural crisis which steals the spotlight of the event and relegates to the background the priorities he has assigned to himself.
Fundamentally, it is also difficult to propose a legislative program when you do not have a majority and have little hope of expanding the circle of your followers.
Read alsoSpeech by Gabriel Attal: audacity will wait
The opposition has no problem denouncing a catalog of above-ground measures.
They are in fact unable to calm tensions with the agricultural world and do not provide concrete elements that could suddenly change the lives of the French.
There is clearly a gap between the flights of fancy at the end of the speech, calling for us not to be content with being a middle power, and measures often at the regulatory level or generalizations, without surprise of experimentation.
However, this is doing the best we can with limited room for maneuver.
Speaking of uniform, housing, remuneration... the government is acting on strong symbols while overlooking the difficulties of a blocked parliamentary situation.
By proposing to go through regulations on the question of State Medical Aid, he is circumventing the traps that LR had tried to set for him.
The text, in fact, would have quickly taken on the color of the right, further undermining the cohesion of the majority.
Furthermore, in view of the recent decision of the Constitutional Council, it is anything but obvious that the right would limit itself to a reform of the AME.
Not only is the agricultural crisis not resolved, but it now seems to definitely escape Gabriel Attal.
Benjamin Morel
Can we say, however, that the exercise was successful?
Not really.
The objective scrutinized by observers of defusing the agricultural crisis certainly did not dominate the speech, but it nevertheless eclipsed it.
The measures announced appear to fall short of the demands of the profession and will not reduce the level of tension.
It seems unlikely that the blockages will end.
By announcing that
“There must be a French agricultural exception”
, the Prime Minister returns the ball to Brussels, taking up a slogan recalling the cultural exception.
However, while the CAP exists and free trade agreements are multiplying, it is very complicated to envisage such a model.
The farmers are now turning to Emmanuel Macron, leaving for Brussels, highlighting Matignon's lack of ability to act on reality.
Not only is the agricultural crisis not resolved, but it now seems to definitely escape Gabriel Attal.
Read alsoBruno Retailleau: “With Attal, there will be no break with the Macronist software”
The second element relates to the cohesion of the majority.
The problem obviously comes first from the weakening of support from the left wing.
However, in this speech, the latter has little reason for satisfaction.
The measures announced, and especially the tone used, are clearly addressed to the right wing.
Whether on the uniform, the RSA, the authority... the reorientation to the right of the government is confirmed by the program announced by Gabriel Attal.
We will undoubtedly have to see what the appointments of Secretaries of State and Ministers Delegate will bring, but the great reconciliation will not take place on this speech.
Few signals were also sent to the MoDem fundamentals, even more angry than Horizon by the latest reshuffle.
Of course, there is the requisition of empty housing… but here too, it is not a structuring legislative measure.
As for housing, the relaxation of the SRU law appears much more significant.
Certainly, we are calling into question the organization of work in ministries by providing for a four-day week or classic office hours for maintenance workers in the administration... however, if the left-wing aspect is limited to reorganization work practice in certain central administrations, we will understand that not much is happening.
One foot in a bale of straw, the other in the cauldron of the Assembly, these first weeks nevertheless illustrate that although communication supports, it does not make policy.
Benjamin Morel
There remains therefore the third objective: to maintain and strengthen the presidential camp in the fringe of the middle classes making up the centrist electorate.
This speech is addressed to them, in the image of the liberation of work and the opening of social housing stock.
In terms of values, the elements relating to order but also to the humanism displayed, as well as maintaining the focus on issues such as abortion, constitute a reminder of their fundamentals.
This is strategically intelligent, knowing that this electoral base is widely mobilized in the European elections, its absence weighs more than its demographic weight, and remains very Macronian.
Getting him to mobilize for the presidential list may be enough to largely save the furniture.
Two challenges remain: some of these voters identify strongly with the left, and the few signals sent risk ending up posing an electoral as well as a parliamentary problem.
Then, as most of the measures are already known or fall within the regulatory framework, it will be necessary to spread out the communication, which is easier to carry out with the help of a law... and this is undoubtedly Gabriel's main mission. Attal, leading the battle of communication.
One foot in a bale of straw, the other in the cauldron of the Assembly, these first weeks nevertheless illustrate that although communication supports, it does not make policy.