Heather Conley: “Europe must prepare for Trump's return to the White House like a storm”

In the face of growing challenges facing the world, Heather Conley calls for a bit of optimism.

“If not, we wouldn't get out of bed,” jokes the president of the American

think tank

German Marshall Fund (GMF).

Visiting Madrid, this former senior official of the Government of her country, the United States, who abandoned official offices for analysis institutes, threads her entire speech around the importance of improving transatlantic relations, a link on which the threat of the return of Donald Trump after the November elections.

Conley also warns about the very negative consequences for the West that a victory by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine would have.

The

caucuses

in Iowa and the primaries in New Hampshire bring the probability – to the point of making it practically inevitable – of a Republican candidacy led by Trump closer.

The idea of ​​seeing him again in the White House no longer seems far-fetched at all.

Conley insists that, unlike in 2016, no one will now be able to say that his victory is a surprise.

So he calls on Europe to prepare for this scenario.

“I know it will be very difficult because there are many fears.

But we have to work harder to strengthen the relationship.

It's like preparing for a storm.

We have to do everything possible.”

A fundamental step for this would be, this analyst assures, for Europe to increase defense spending and promote its self-sufficiency in security.

But how to achieve in just over nine months what has not been done in decades?

“When you are a student, you cannot prepare for an exam in the last few hours.

You have to do it consistently during the course,” she responds.

And she insists that Europe should not strengthen its security to please the United States, but because it needs to.

“We see it now with the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

In a very unstable world, they are efforts for the common good.”

There is another idea that this expert on Russia and Central Europe insists on.

She advocates transcending a model in which good or bad relations between the United States and Europe depend almost entirely on who occupies the White House.

“The transatlantic link depends on the citizens;

“And we should ensure that our European friends do not build this relationship just around Washington, but around all US citizens.”

Heather Conley, during the interview in Madrid.

Andrea Comas

Does Trump pose a risk to democracy?

Conley prefers to use more moderate language: “The former president's attempt not to recognize the victory of his rival was deeply destabilizing.”

The shock of the war in Ukraine resonated in a very different way in Europe, where this crisis has great destabilizing potential, than in the United States. Something similar has happened with the conflict in the Middle East.

But Conley does not share the idea that these crises have shown growing tension on both sides of the Atlantic.

“At the beginning of the Ukrainian war we were very aligned.

And now, unfortunately, we sense an alignment in fatigue in support for kyiv.

Warnings about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza are increasingly being heard in Washington and European capitals, while Israel's right to defend itself is recognized.

Unfortunately, neither the US nor Europe have been able to change the course of the war,” he responds.

On the other hand, he does recognize a lack of alignment on issues such as trade — “Not eliminating the tariffs that Trump imposed is a missed opportunity” — and different views on China.

2024 is not just any year.

From January to December, more than half of the world's population is called to the polls.

In this great election year, Conley considers that the greatest danger in advanced democracies comes from within the system: “The greatest challenge in Europe and the United States is for citizens not to lose faith in their own democracy.”

This is not the case of Russia, which will hold elections in March with which it aspires to legitimize itself as a democracy.

“Something that it really is not,” he points out.

He nods when he hears about the profound impact that images of the deaths in Gaza have on Western societies, sparking accusations of double standards against the US and the EU.

But he prefers not to talk about discredit.

He does consider it “absolutely imperative” to protect the lives of civilians and return to the norms of international law.

“The solution will only come with a new generation of leaders, both in Israel and Palestine.

Leaders who have courage to show a new vision,” he adds.

The two years of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine are approaching and Western aid to Kiev is faltering, in the United States due to the reluctance of the Republicans and in Europe due to the obstacles placed in the wheels by leaders such as the Hungarian Viktor Orbán.

That is one of the issues that most worries Conley, who calls these visions “shortsighted.”

“It seems that they have lost sight of the implications that a Russian victory would have, the instability it would bring and the boost it would provide for countries like Iran, North Korea and China.

It's very frustrating.

In the coming weeks we will have to insist on the importance of this help.”

The head of the GMF criticizes the strategy of gradually handing over weapons, a policy that was explained by Western fear of an escalation by Russia.

“But if they had been delivered faster, Ukraine would have gained a huge advantage over Russia.

We lost that moment and now we are going to pay a very high price for it,” she says bluntly.

Furthermore, she denies that the time is approaching when Ukraine will be forced to accept a peace agreement that includes painful concessions.

“I don't think President Zelensky wants to be the leader who signs that agreement with concessions that you talk about.

We are very far from it.”

The West's objective, he assures, is to strengthen Ukraine's position for when it sits down at the table to talk.

“The reality is that now there is no possibility of negotiation.

Ukraine is fighting for its survival, something that cannot be negotiated.

“The Russian occupation only means death,” he concludes.

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