The EU is willing to activate the necessary mechanisms to economically support Ukraine without Hungary if Prime Minister Viktor Orbán maintains his blockade of aid.
Brussels is seriously concerned about the situation in the country invaded by Russia.
The latest large-scale attacks, small ground gains by Kremlin troops and Kiev's ammunition problems, together with Ukrainian economic difficulties, show that European support is crucial when US aid also falters.
But Hungary, to the chagrin of the rest of the partners, maintains the veto of the 50 billion euro financial lifeline within a broader review of the Union's multi-year budget, which Brussels wants to launch to keep Ukraine afloat.
The promise is that kyiv will receive funds no matter what and urgently.
So, faced with the prospect of Orbán maintaining his veto at the decisive leaders' meeting this Thursday, the EU is preparing to activate a plan B and achieve a support mechanism without Hungary.
This option would be an emergency solution, only for this year.
In parallel, the leaders are trying to get Budapest to accept minimal last-minute concessions and thus save an agreement that will allow plan A to move forward.
There are several mechanisms to implement this alternative plan - through loans for Ukraine within the community budget and with the support and bilateral contributions of the other 26 member states - so that kyiv has liquidity this year.
However, this option is not ideal.
To carry it out, it would only require the approval of a majority of the partners and not unanimity, as required for the financial lifeline within the multiannual budget framework and which Budapest has blocked since December.
To try to save an agreement on that original plan of 50 billion euros (for four years) at the summit of heads of State and Government this Thursday - dedicated to Ukraine and that review of the multiannual financial framework that Budapest blocked in December -;
Brussels has offered a small concession to Orbán: an annual review of aid for kyiv, but without veto power.
“The European Council will hold a debate every year on the implementation of the mechanism,” says the draft conclusions of the leaders' summit to which EL PAÍS has had access.
Talks “to provide guidance on the EU approach.”
Orbán lurches
Within the lurches that Orbán has been taking, one of the elements that he had demanded is the annual review of aid to be able to show the muscle of his veto.
The option that the leaders will debate this Thursday in Brussels could give the Hungarian the option of selling it at home — where he maintains his inflamed rhetoric against Ukraine and against “the bureaucrats in Brussels” — as a concession or even a small victory.
The agreement on the lifeline of 50,000 million euros (33,000 million in loans and 17,000 million in subsidies), which is part of a broader proposal, which includes that Member States contribute new funds to the common coffers for competitiveness programs and for Immigration management, however, is by no means guaranteed, community sources warn.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on January 16 at a press conference in Budapest.
BERNADETT SZABO (REUTERS)
Orbán arrives at this Thursday's summit more isolated than ever.
The frustration of the rest of the leaders is enormous.
Many, for whom EU support for Ukraine is an existential issue, have lost patience and are already talking about consequences for Hungary.
“It is not only a very serious situation for Ukraine, but also for the reputation of the EU,” warns a diplomat.
“Russia will be rubbing its hands because it will have achieved a crack, a division.
Although it is made visible that it is all the Member States against Hungary,” she adds.
With the change of government in Poland, the populist Hungarian prime minister no longer has the support of what had been his ally, another country that had been governed by the ultra-conservatives, but is now led by the liberal Donald Tusk.
Nor has Slovakia, led by newcomer Robert Fico, sided with him.
For the first time, several partners have put on the table opening the debate on activating article 7, which could deprive Hungary of voting rights.
But this
nuclear button
can only be activated for matters related to violations of the rule of law (for which the wayward partner of the East has blocked 21,000 million euros in European funds).
At the moment, that point has not yet been reached, community sources emphasize, although the pressures on Hungary are increasing.
To launch the procedure and activate that
nuclear button
, a significant majority of Member States would be required.
Finishing it off would require unanimity.
More ammunition for Ukraine
The 50 billion euros of financial lifeline that the EU seeks to inject into Ukraine would prevent the collapse of the country, which has been resisting Russian aggression for almost two years.
It would also prevent kyiv from stopping paying salaries to its officials and cutting pensions to continue feeding the defense budget.
At the same time, with a significant lack of material and ammunition on the battle fronts, where troops are on a diet of projectiles, the EU is trying to boost industrial capacity and redirect agreements with manufacturers so that they prioritize shipments to Ukraine.
Last year, the EU pledged to send one million rounds of projectiles to Ukraine by March 2024, but has fallen short of the target.
For now, the invaded country has only received a third of what was promised.
In March, 52% of what was committed will be reached, detailed the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security, Josep Borrell, in Brussels, where the Union's Defense Ministers have debated the creation of a new fund for weapons. for Ukraine, endowed with 5,000 million euros in the first year, as EL PAÍS reported.
“Ukraine needs more support and that is the message that is transmitted to the Member States: we must do more and faster because on the front line the battle is fierce,” said Borrell, who has assured that the capacity of companies in Europe to produce shells has increased by 40% since the start of the war.
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