The prospect of
a full-scale war between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah
terrifies residents on both sides of the border, but some see it as an inevitable consequence of Israel's ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza.
Such a war
could be the most destructive
either side has ever experienced.
Israel and Hezbollah have drawn lessons from their last war, in 2006,
a month-long conflict
that ended in a draw.
They have also had four months to prepare for another war, even as the United States tries to avoid an escalation of the conflict.
Here's an overview of
each side's preparation,
how war might unfold, and what's being done to prevent it.
What happened in 2006?
The 2006 war, six years after Israeli forces withdrew from southern Lebanon, broke out after Hezbollah
captured two Israeli soldiers
and killed several others in a cross-border raid.
Israel launched a large-scale air and ground offensive and imposed a blockade aimed at freeing the hostages and destroying Hezbollah's military capabilities,
a mission that ultimately failed.
Israeli bombing devastated large areas of southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Hezbollah fired thousands of unguided rockets at communities in northern Israel.
The conflict killed about 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.
A United Nations resolution that ended the war called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and
a demilitarized zone on the Lebanese side
of the border.
Despite the deployment of UN peacekeepers,
Hezbollah continues to operate in the border area,
while Lebanon says Israel regularly violates its airspace and continues to occupy areas of Lebanese land.
How likely is war?
"A war between Israel and Hezbollah
would be a total disaster
," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned last month, amid a wave of diplomatic talks between the United States and Europe.
Iran-backed
Hezbollah
appeared to have been caught off guard by Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel, a regional ally.
Since then, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged daily cross-border attacks that gradually escalate
.
Israel also carried out targeted assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas figures
in Lebanon.
More than 200 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also more than 20 civilians, have been killed on the Lebanese side and 18 on the Israeli side.
UN soldiers guard the border between Israel and Lebanon.
Photo: AP
Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides.
There are no immediate prospects for his return.
Israeli political and military leaders have warned Hezbollah that
war is increasingly likely
unless
the militants withdraw from the border.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
has not threatened to start a war
, but warned of a “no holds barred” fight if Israel does so.
Hezbollah says it will not accept a ceasefire on the Israel-Lebanon border
before there is one in Gaza
and has rejected a US proposal to move its forces several kilometers from the border, according to Lebanese officials.
Despite these speeches,
neither side seems to want war
, said Andrea Tenenti, spokesperson for the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon.
However, "
a miscalculation could trigger a broader conflict that
would be very
difficult to control
," he said.
How prepared are they?
Both Hezbollah and the Israeli military
have expanded their capabilities
since 2006, but both countries are also more fragile.
In Lebanon,
four years of economic crisis
have affected public institutions, including the army and the electricity grid, and weakened the health system.
The country hosts
more than 1 million Syrian refugees.
Lebanon adopted an emergency plan for a war scenario in late October.
It projected the forced displacement of 1 million Lebanese
over 45 days.
Smoke in a village in southern Lebanese after an Israeli bombardment.
Photo: Rabih DAHER / AFP
Some 87,000 Lebanese are displaced from the border area.
While the government relies on international organizations to fund the response, many groups working in Lebanon are unable to maintain existing programs.
The U.N. refugee agency has provided supplies to collective shelters and given emergency money to about 400 families in southern Lebanon, spokeswoman Lisa Abou Khaled said.
The agency does not have funds to support large numbers of displaced people in the event of war, she said.
The aid group Doctors Without Borders said it had stockpiled
about 10 tonnes of medical supplies and fuel
for hospital generators in areas most likely to be affected by the escalating conflict, in anticipation of a blockade.
Israel is suffering economic and social tensions from the Gaza war, which is expected
to cost more than $50 billion,
or about 10 percent of national economic activity through the end of 2024, according to the Bank of Israel.
Costs would increase dramatically if there was a war with Lebanon.
“No one wants this war, nor does anyone want it,”
said Tal Beeri of the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focused on northern Israel's security.
But he said he believes an armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable, given that diplomatic solutions seem unlikely and would only allow Hezbollah's strategic threats to increase.
Israeli aerial bombardment in southern Lebanon.
Photo: AP
Israel
has evacuated 60,000 residents from cities closest to the border
, where there is no warning time for rocket fire due to the proximity of Hezbollah squads.
In a war, it would make no sense to carry out more evacuations, since the militia's rockets and missiles
can reach all of Israel.
After the October 7 attack, the war in Gaza enjoyed broad domestic support, although there is now
growing debate over its direction
.
About half of Israelis would support war with Hezbollah as a last resort to restore border security, according to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute
think tank
.
In Lebanon, some criticize Hezbollah for exposing the country to another potentially devastating war.
Others support the group's limited entry into the conflict and believe Hezbollah's arsenal will deter Israel from escalation.
How would the war develop?
A full-scale war would likely
span multiple fronts
, intensifying the involvement of Iranian proxies from Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and perhaps even
involving Iran itself.
It could also drag the United States,
Israel's closest ally, into being more engaged in the conflict.
The United States has already sent additional warships to the region.
A UN soldier enters a shelter at a base in a Lebanese village on the border with Israel.
Photo: AP
Hezbollah
has between 150,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles
of various ranges, said Orna Mizrahi of the Israeli think tank Institute for National Security Studies.
This arsenal is at least five times larger than Hamas's and much more precise, she said.
The militia's guided projectiles could hit water, electricity or communications facilities and densely populated residential areas.
In Lebanon, airstrikes would likely wreak havoc on infrastructure and potentially
kill thousands of people.
Netanyahu has threatened
to “turn Beirut into Gaza,”
where Israel's air and ground incursion has caused widespread destruction and killed more than 26,000 people, according to Hamas-controlled Gaza's Health Ministry.
Israel is much more protected
, with
several air defense systems
, such as Iron Dome, which intercept rockets with a success rate of approximately 90%.
But it can be overwhelmed if a massive barrage of rockets is launched.
About 40% of Israel's population lives
in newer homes with safe private rooms fortified
with blast protection to resist rocket attacks.
Israel also
has a network of bomb shelters,
but a 2020 government report says about a third of Israelis do not have easy access to them.
Lebanon has no such network
, and the shelters would be of little use against the "bunker buster" bombs Israel has dropped on Gaza.
Hezbollah has limited air defenses, while those of the Lebanese army are outdated and insufficient due to budget shortfalls, said Dina Arakji of UK-based risk consultancy Control Risks.
The Lebanese army has remained on the sidelines for the past four months.
In 2006, it entered combat in a limited capacity, but it is unclear how it would react in the event of a new war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Translation: Elisa Carnelli