Four months after the barbaric attack by Hamas, the campaign against the murderous organization is approaching a make or break situation.
Pressures from outside and weakness at home may push Israel into a situation of not achieving its goals - this is in contrast to the willpower and resilience of the majority of the public in Israel.
Gazans are fleeing Khan Yunis and the north of the Gaza Strip after trying to return against IDF orders // Arab Networks
For reasons that are clearly unclear, the IDF is loosening its grip on Gaza and allowing the Arab residents to return to the north and even approach Israeli territory. The instructions to open fire have also been reduced again. But the main trump card with which external forces are trying to bring about an end to the campaign is the abductees.
When Sinwar ordered the Nawab forces on the morning of Simchat Torah to "kidnap Zionists", he aimed for the exact moment when Israel would be forced to choose between the return of its people and its own destruction.
The contrast between these two goals is not necessary.
Because if we are patient and strong, the IDF will eventually reach the abductees. However, the dynamics that have been developing in recent days may well push Israel to the point of accepting the rule of Hamas.
IDF soldiers at the Gaza border, photo: AP
Explicit words that make it clear that this is the intention, a spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry told CNN yesterday.
"We are working to bring about an extended ceasefire, in the hope that it will later lead to the end of the war," he explained.
The Americans are aiming for the end of the war
The Americans, for their own reasons, are leading Israel to the end of the war.
Because the release deal at hand will involve the release of hundreds of terrorists, including vile murderers - a heavy price that deserves a separate discussion.
More importantly, the truce will be so long - 30, or 40, or 60 days - according to the key of one abductee each day, that it is doubtful that Israel will be able to resume the war after it.
Doubt grows doubly strong in the face of the undisguised American desire for us to stop.
How will this happen?
During the first lull, talks should begin on the price for the release of the additional abductees.
If these go well, it will mean more than 100 days of non-combat.
Such a pause in the war will most likely lead to the dissolution of the unity government, which is an essential condition for the continuation of the campaign.
"The Americans are reeling for the end of the war" US President Biden, photo: AFP
The government will fall apart because its right wing will not agree to release hundreds of murderers, who are known to return to terrorism.
Although this lesson should have been the property of the general public.
However, at the moment only the right remembers that the Jibril deal gave birth to the first intifada, and the Shalit deal the current war.
So only an idiot would repeat such a strategic concept, but there are no shortage of such.
Washington and Tehran have similar interests
The prolonged lull will be used by the Americans for additional package deals.
For the Israelis, they will promise peace with Saudi Arabia in exchange for turning a blind eye to the truncated Hamas.
At the same time, they will agree with the Iranians on a partial withdrawal of Hezbollah from Israel's border.
Quite surprisingly, the interests of Tehran and Washington intersect here.
Lebanon border. Photo: AFP
Tehran wants to save its affiliates in Lebanon and Gaza from destruction, so it will force Nasrallah to make a symbolic withdrawal to the north.
Washington has indeed pledged to help Israel eliminate Hamas, and is indeed doing so with a magnificent aerial train.
But at the same time, Biden - or especially Lincoln - wants the peace to be restored.
So that during the first and long lull they will work to complete an agreement that will sort of solve the problem on the northern border.
This is the way the war will fade.
Israel will not remove the threats, neither in the south nor in the north.
The question, of course, is what the Israeli leadership will do under these circumstances.
Committed to the renewal of fighting
Netanyahu clarified his position when he limited the number of released terrorists to hundreds and pledged to renew the war and destroy Hamas.
This means that the statement at least, he will insist on resuming the war after the first truce.
Eisenkot and Gantz, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Gantz and Einzkut, on the other hand, keep their cards close to their chest.
They understand the American move very well, but prefer to remain silent in these sensitive days.
In principle, they are also committed to renewing the war after the truce, but there is no telling how things will develop.
The most important actor who can stop this negative dynamic is the people of Israel, and in particular the soldiers who were released from the reserves.
After all, the war is indeed difficult and complex, and has already lasted a third of a year.
Still, it is more difficult for the enemy, while the IDF is stronger. A little more pressure and determination, and it will be possible to bring Hamas to the breaking point and us to victory.
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