As of: February 1, 2024, 7:50 p.m
By: Bona Hyun
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Kim and Putin have always emphasized their close cooperation.
The alleged arms deals will apparently bear fruit for North Korea's economy.
Pyongyang - North Korea's economy is flourishing: Thanks to the arms deals with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, ruler Kim Jong-un can look forward to growth again for the first time.
Selling ammunition to Russia could bring hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars into Kim's treasury.
Arms deliveries from Russia: Putin stimulates North Korea's economy
Since August 2023, North Korea has made ten arms transfers, according to South Korean intelligence.
Kim is said to have delivered around a million grenades to Russia, reports
Bloomberg
.
According to other reports citing US satellite images, Pyongyang has also supplied ballistic missiles to the Russian military.
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik told the South Korean news agency
yonhap
that North Korea is estimated to have delivered around 5,000 containers with weapons to Russia, which could contain around 2.3 million rounds of 152-millimeter grenades.
The North Korean leader shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
(Archive photo) © Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin Pool/IMAGO
If North Korea were to sell grenades at a price of $1,000 each, the amount purchased would correspond to around ten percent of North Korea's gross domestic product, according to
Bloomberg
calculations.
This is actually a conservative estimate, as high demand could have driven up prices.
For comparison: a simple 155-millimeter grenade that the EU promised Ukraine costs around 3,000 euros each.
North Korea's economy could grow again for the first time thanks to arms deliveries from Russia
For North Korea, the arms deal could stimulate the economy for the first time in five years.
Due to the entry rules imposed in the wake of the corona pandemic, the already weak economy shrank by 4.5 percent by 2020.
In addition, according to the
Neue Zürcher Zeitung,
international economic sanctions led North Korea into recession in 2017.
North Korea itself hardly publishes any economic figures.
“The economy has declined over the last five years.
The arms deal with Russia will help the economy return to positive growth of around one percent by 2024,” Anwita Basu, macroeconomist at Fitch Solutions, told Deutsche
Welle.
But Basu has doubts that the population will benefit from the arms deal in the long term.
North Korea has been heavily dependent on foreign aid to feed its population for many years.
Many people are suffering from malnutrition and other health problems due to North Korea's economic crisis.
Arms deal between Kim and Putin will not free population from economic crisis
Basu called the ammunition transfer a "mega-deal" for Pyongyang and said it was clearly an "act of desperation" by Russia, which is increasingly isolated worldwide over the decision to invade its neighbor.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, among others, fueled speculation about an arms deal during his visit to North Korea in July 2023.
Shoigu is said to have used the visit to Kim as an opportunity to expand the arms deal with Kim.
In October 2023, the White House said North Korea had delivered more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and ammunition to Russia.
North Korea and Russia deny arms deal - Shoigu's visit to Kim fuels speculation
According to US intelligence, Russia used ballistic missiles from North Korea in attacks against Ukraine in January 2024.
Russia is dependent on North Korea and Iran for weapons for its war in Ukraine, it is said.
These two countries are largely isolated internationally because of their nuclear programs and human rights records.
In November, the South Korean military said it suspected North Korea of sending an unspecified number of short-range ballistic missiles, anti-tank missiles and man-portable anti-aircraft missiles, as well as rifles, rocket launchers, mortars and grenades to Russia.
So far, both sides have denied an arms deal.
(bohy)